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[PhantomPholly]

Note to all the nay-sayers who think practical electric vehicles are still 10 years away.

Notice that we are having discoveries announced almost daily, and that batteries are now improving at an accelerating rate. I hereby predict that batteries will surpass gasoline in less than a decade for energy density, and that they will surpass gasoline for economy much more quickly than that.

[dimitri]

Originally Posted by PhantomPholly

I hereby predict that batteries will surpass gasoline in less than a decade for energy density, and that they will surpass gasoline for economy much more quickly than that.

And how much money do you have to back up your prediction?

I am very happy to see all improvements in battery density, but getting close to gasoline in 10 years might be a tall order, although since ICE is 25% efficient I think battery with 1/4 of energy density of gas will be comparable in EV.

[PhantomPholly]

Originally Posted by dimitri

And how much money do you have to back up your prediction?

I am very happy to see all improvements in battery density, but getting close to gasoline in 10 years might be a tall order, although since ICE is 25% efficient I think battery with 1/4 of energy density of gas will be comparable in EV.

Well, it would be difficult to find someone we both trust to hold the money for 10 years - but in truth I think it is a VERY good bet.

Consider this: In 1990 an ambitions program called "The Human Genome Project" was begun.

The $3-billion project was formally founded in 1990 by the United States Department of Energy and the U.S. National Institutes of Health, and was expected to take 15 years.

Almost 8 years into the project, it was estimated that the program was only 1-2% complete and that the idea of on-time completion was a joke. Yet the project was completed AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. How is that possible?

It is because in the process of searching for answers about human genes new discoveries in computer science; process parallelism; materials handling; materials analysis; and a host of other supporting knowledge began a synergistic effect resulting in an explosion of "new discoveries" in the latter part of the project.

Many of those new discoveries are now aiding researchers in other disciplines, and the "spotlight" has only recently been turned towards batteries. There was no need to hurry earlier - gas was cheap, and the folks most likely to suffer financially when it ran out (big oil) has little incentive to replace what they can produce today virtually for free with something which requires manufacture. Instead they are building their warchest of cash and searching for their product's likely successors, and will simply BUY likely candidates as peak oil passes.

This same process of "knowledge accelleration" WILL occur with batteries, and my whole original post's point in this thread is to point out how we are now starting to observe the signs of that accelleration.

I wouldn't be surprised if, 10 years from now, I will be able to go down to my local Honda dealer and buy a Civic with a 1,000 mile range.