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05-03-2012, 10:32 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Wellington
Posts: 63
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Barriers to mass EV conversion
Hi All
We have so many cheap Japanese cars in New Zealand and are unlikely to see secondhand imports of electric cars for many years. So what are the major barriers to a leap in home EV conversions in NZ?
My guess is that the overlap between those that want to do it and those with the money to fund the entire job is quite low.
I just went through evalbum.com and noted down the stated price of most of the New Zealand cars (listed down below). Naturally there is a range and the major factor would be battery choice. I gather that AC vs DC doesn't make much difference to motor/controller price these days. Naturally, as this is about doing the conversion yourself, you are avoiding that part of the cost of conversion.
For those living in suburbs and driving to work each day I am looking at the data and thinking $20,000 may need to be budgeted on conversion to get a reliable vehicle capable of going the distance. The raw cost savings of using electricity over petrol might conservatively be over $50 a week. So just from looking at that one major cost saving, it would make it worth putting up to $43,000 on an existing 6% mortgage. Without access to a convenient mortgage, car or personal loan interest rates are more like 14% from memory, limiting worthwhile expenditure to $18,000-odd, but more of a problem of nothing to secure it against.
I'm no expert in financing - is my maths right? Is financing a car conversion a barrier? If so, what suggested solutions do we have?
Best regards
Richard
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From EVAlbum.com for New Zealand:
1988 Mazda B1600 Ute - $13,000 est
2000 Toyota Vitz - $13,000 plus $6000 for car
1990 Toyota Starlet - $11,000 including car at $2100
1986 Subaru Domingo van - $10,000
1971 Volkswagen Beetle - US$11,500
1995 Toyota Celica - not stated
1991 Toyota MR2 - US$10,000
1987 Mitsubishi Tredia - US$9000
2005 Suzuki Swift-E - $25,000
1995 Holden Calibra - <$25,000 est including car
1993 Toyota Corolla - $25,000
1992 Honda Civic - $25,000
1993 Ford Festiva - not stated
1974 Vauxhall Viva - $2000
1991 Honda Civic - $16,780
1987 Suzuki Alto - $12,500
1973 Citoen Dyane - $25,000
1993 Ford Courier - $16,600
2005 Toyota RAV4 - $70,000
1998 Mercedes Benz A160 - $45,000 est
1996 Subaru Legacy - <$20,000 est
1995 BMW 328i/4 SE - $7000 plus $4020 for car
1983 Mazda 323 - not stated
1937 Austin 8 - not stated
1963 Morris Mini - not stated
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05-04-2012, 08:15 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 162
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
Hi Richard I have done just that, I don't think it's entirely an economic decision, to me it's just the right thing to do.
I think our current govt is very short sighted when it comes to EV's we are the only Western country not offering incentives for early adopters, EV's could be the answer to alot of NZ's problems, we spend more a week on foreign oil than we make from our diary industry, we can generate our own power and keep the money in NZ, (that is while our power is NZ owned). We've lost our direction and seem hell bent on mining our national parks and drilling for oil, that's my rant over.
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05-08-2012, 02:45 AM
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Junior Member
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Clevedon NZ
Posts: 2
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
With peak oil behind us and the EROI of oil getting worse by the year we should be looking at what the return is taking that into account, not the return on current prices.
When I started converting Celica that has done over 29000km now, my thoughts were I can not afford not to do It.
As to the battery cost, over the life of the batteries I would like to bet that the engine related costs, timing belts, oil filters ect would be close to the same as he Bat replacement cost.
With the solar panels that I have on the garage roof,( $9,000 worth makes enough power to drive 25000km per year) over there life that would work out at less than 1 cent per km. That is a farily good return on my money.
Pete
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05-08-2012, 03:31 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 162
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
Not to mention the 3 tons of CO2 you now don't emit
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05-09-2012, 07:49 PM
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Junior Member
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Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 10
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
Richard
Your $43k mortgage at 6% is $2580 interest only, which is more than the petrol savings.
A $20k conversion budget realistically only gets around $8k of batteries so teh range won't be massive, this limiting the daily distance.
I've done some numbers using a Corolla as an example and pay back is well over 10 years. I calculated a $28k cost to run a petrol Corolla for 10 years and $31k for an EV conversion. It doesn't stack up on a cost only basis for a commuter car, you'd need to do it for the love, or buy a Prius C instead.
Dan
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05-10-2012, 12:50 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 162
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
So did you subtract the price of the other car or is it only electric cars that have to have a pay back period just as well its free to pump 3 tons of carbon monoxide a year into the environment
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05-10-2012, 04:59 PM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pukekohe, New Zealand
Posts: 309
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
To purchase an ICE age car that is going to provide 10 years of reliable motoring is going to cost much more than a conversion candidate which can already be at end of life for the motor at least. A lowish mileage (~ 70,000km) turbo diesel that’s about 5 years old can be had for less than $15k. Turbo diesels cost much more than their petrol counterparts. The particular vehicle I have in mind uses 4.7 l/100km and so for an average 14,000km/year would cost approximately $1033 for fuel and $620 for RUC. This would make projected running costs for 10 years not counting inflation (likely higher than CPI for fuel) $16,530. Total cost in today’s money $31,530 around half of which is upfront. Such a vehicle would likely be running into significant reliability costs at the end of the 10 year period. It would be 15 years old with over 200,000km on the clock. It would be a good conversion candidate at this point perhaps though I would prefer a vehicle less worn out if I was going to be sinking $20k+ into it. A vehicle that has suffered some sort of mechanical misadventure which has bought forward its end of life would be better though difficult to find. Anyway I think you could save at least $10k on the conversion candidate over a reliable ICE car. This would bring the EV premium down to $10k for a $20k conversion but it would pretty much be all upfront costs of around $25k. I don’t have the figures for running costs of EV’s anymore but if I remember correctly converting your house to solar hot water heating would offset the average electricity usage for one small EV. This would be another way to Solar Power your EV, displacement of use.
Last edited by John; 05-10-2012 at 05:15 PM.
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05-13-2012, 12:57 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Wellington
Posts: 63
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
Hi
Great to see these replies. I will need to pull my calculator out again, but in the meantime:
As I said I'm estimating fuel savings at $50 a week, so there is the $2600. I was thinking that if a person can save that money per week they can afford to put about $43,000 on their mortgage to get it. Of course the conversion will only last so long so perhaps I should recalculate on the basis of a set time period such as 10 years. Any thoughts on how long a converted 10 year old car would last? On the other hand we'd probably be able to include savings on not paying for higher mechanical upkeep on a petrol car and the avoidance of replacing the petrol car at a point earlier than an EV might need. I know toyotas never die but I suspect that if we go like for like with a 10 year old petrol car then there would be some pretty substantial mechanical costs at some point in it's next 10 years.
Range and therefore required battery is an interesting question. The big car makers are going for maximum, which only makes their cars too expensive. For people, for example, in Wellington's Lower Hutt and North Wellington areas it's 30-40km daily round trip to the CBD. So if we allow a margin above that, I'm thinking 60km is enough, is it?
My understanding is that a Prius is only more cost effective for taxi drivers, that for those of us commuting at highway speeds it's not a lot of use.
Note, I'm already assuming this is a "want to do", so the question I am posing is whether financing is a barrier to conversions, or whether the numbers stack up sufficiently to encourage conversions. I would think marginal is good enough if enough people like the idea.
Richard
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05-13-2012, 04:16 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: Australia
Posts: 114
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
Every person's situation, circumstances and motivations are different. Financing an EV conversion is definitely a consideration that needs to be taken into account, but not the only one.
For example, I'm interested in EV Conversions because I'm sick of doing oil changes, oil filter changes, valve clearance adjustments, spark plug changes, etc etc. Also, new gas cars are getting harder and harder to repair and service and need specialists tools and I can't keep up with it all. This not only takes money, but it consumes time and for me time is money.
For example, some of the diagnostic scan tools that cover many gas cars cost $15,000 and you have to keep getting updates. These new gas cars have more complex electronics and computers than EV conversions.
Another issue is taking the first step. Some go into analysis paralysis / procrastination and never take the first step. I know what that is like. That is why I started with something small like a go kart. I didn't get it right the first time round, but after reading an e-book and watching videos by a New Zealander, things made a bit more sense and I got the go kart going. I recently also went to a course which I found very helpful and I kept bombarding the lecturer with questions, including questions resulting from my Electric Go Kart conversion.
By starting on a small scale, mistakes and costs can be contained. Also, be willing to spend money on buying the right books as good books on the topic can help you save money & time as you don't have to re-invent the wheel as often and it can help you avoid costly mistakes.
Once, you get more experience with the small stuff, then doing a car will not be such a big step.
Summary:
Financing can be a barrier to EV Conversions, but analysis paralysis / procrastination is probably a bigger killer, which is why in my opinion if you don't know where to start, it is best to start of with either a go kart or bicycle and do a conversion on that. With bicycles, you can even buy bolt on kits. Doing a course also helps and joining EV clubs can be beneficial. Also, forums like www.diyelectriccar.com are great resources for helping EV Conversions become a reality for many.
Last edited by CrazyAl; 05-13-2012 at 04:20 AM.
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05-13-2012, 05:27 AM
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Senior Member
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Southland New Zealand
Posts: 1,713
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Re: Barriers to mass EV conversion
Hi Guys
This is probably not what you want to hear
- Anybody thinking that he is saving money by doing a conversion is deluding himself-
Do it because you want to
There is no way it will be as cheap as using a cheap old car and a bike
Modern cars last for ever - 3 - 4 - 500,000Km is not unusual
a $2,000 car can last 10 years
Any conversion is going to cost $10,000 - you can buy a lot of petrol for $8,000
My car is being done on the cheap - I don't dare add everything up!
And thats with a small (tiny) pack, a $100 motor, an OpenRevolt controller and a bad boy charger!
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