[LVVTA]

I agree with Duncan, except that there are some commercial uses that may work out cost positive.

I can't attach my Excel file but my quick attempt at a 10 year comparison, with thoughts to the financing variables, was easy to do.

Richard, if you shorten the commute, the likely yearly kilometres travelled drops and therefore so does the petrol cost. In my mind it only really makes sense for a vehicle doing high kms and not straying far away from a base (for top ups or battery swaps). A courier van is the ideal application.

[Richard Wood]

Hi Guys

Great to see the discussion about whether EVs are economically worthwhile, it would be nice if they are, but so long as they aren't outrageously more expensive if they aren't. Let's just assume it is a good thing to do both personally and as a public good.

If I can lead us back to the original question, I suspect there are many people who would want an EV and would be prepared to convert them but don't have the dosh. Do you think this is a barrier to doing bulk EV conversions in NZ, and if so how would it be solved, and are there any other barriers to mass EV conversion of our huge amount of cheap second hand cars?

Richard

[CrazyAl]

Originally Posted by Duncan

- Anybody thinking that he is saving money by doing a conversion is deluding himself-

I agree with this statement at the moment. Often good things cost money.

I asked some people why they were interested in doing their own conversion and not one of them said that it was to save money. They gave other answers such as environment, simplicity, less waste, technical, not wanting to hand over their money to oil companies etc etc.

[albo2]

Hi Richard as you are probably aware the major cost to this is the batteries This will over time come down I can remember when a video player was over 1000 bucks, What is required is to get people driving these cars maybe we need a show day where people can be taken for a test drive, it is going to also take a change in mindset where we pay up front for quality, this not only goes for electric cars but for a good deal of the products we purchase, designed and perceived obsolescence needs to become a thing of the past, we do have a chance to adapt quickly or face sky rocketing prices as oil runs out, lets not forget China and India have a growing middle class they also want a car and why shouldn't they, we also need to start asking our politicians the hard questions and have some incentives in place for the early adopters it is these people that will spread the word that is get people be hind the wheel of these cars

[Richard Wood]

Hi Ablo2

Thanks for identifying a couple of major barriers. Regarding communicating with people I actually think the introduction of new EVs may be working against us on this score as it's presenting EVs as very expensive - $60,000 for a compact car. Show days are a great idea. Gav did a great job of showing anyone can do a conversion, and we need more such videos. How about a reality TV show as they seem all the rage? Any other ideas anyone?

Another aspect you talk about of getting a more sustainable mindset is a longer term goal but I think that is happening. Government incentives would obviously help but can't be counted on. To me that's an argument to Government that they should be doing the right thing environmentally and I think it's more likely that local councils in New Zealand will move before central.

Battery prices do seem to be coming down. I set up another thread to look at those cost issues as I doubt it is a barrier now for the mass conversion activity we're discussing here, although financing might be. Happy to be contradicted on that though.

Cheers
Richard

[Ziggythewiz]

Unless OEMs ever decide to use the same parts we are, the high EV sticker price is only beneficial to the conversion cause. The best parts of DIY are you choose the car and set the range. To get your payback you have to have a pack that's appropriately sized for your range. OEMs can't provide that to much of the population until they move to iPod pricing.

[John]

Originally Posted by albo2

Hi Richard as you are probably aware the major cost to this is the batteries This will over time come down I can remember when a video player was over 1000 bucks.

It takes a bit of a leap of logic for people to think of batteries as fuel and that they are purchasing half of their next 10 years worth of fuel up front. This is what makes electric cars (and hybrids) look so expensive; there is a big upfront cost but a lower everyday cost. It is difficult for people to see past the big upfront cost. Also when talking about financing there is a current aversion to debt.

I don't believe that we will see anything like the contraction in price of batteries as we have seen in other technology products. For one thing they cannot be endlessly integrated and miniaturized like other electronic goods. A certain volume of commodity metals are required for a certain capacity and while that relationship will change favorably over time it won’t be by orders of magnitude.

[albo2]

who knows what the future holds, we only have the batteries today due to the development of laptops and cellphones, what will happen when research is aimed towards EV's themselves, batteries are not the fuel they are merely the fuel tank, there is currently in developement a lithium air battery if this becomes reality they will be able to pack in 10 times the energy (electrons-fuel) of our current batteries, I don't believe the manufacturing process is that complicated for batteries, once EV's take hold then the economy of scale should dramatically reduce the cost, hopefully surely hopefully, also once lithium is mined it can be used over and over again, unlike oil burn it and it's gone.

[John]

When I refer to batteries as fuel it is because they are used up over time (and cycles). If you were purchasing a used EV one of the key questions would be how much life is left in the battery. If you were buying a 9 year old EV and the life expectancy of its battery was 10 years you would want to pay significantly less for it than a 10 year old EV that had proof its battery had been changed recently. If the batteries get to the point that they outlast the rest of the car then yes it is just an energy container otherwise it is more than that. A liFePO4 battery rated at 2000 cycles would last 8 years at 250 cycles per year and this doesn't account for calendar life which is unknown. This was much more the case with flooded Lead Acid batteries which might only expect 700 cycles.

When we talk about metals in the reactivity series Lithium is pretty much at the top of the pack. It also has a very low density which is why it is the current darling when it comes to chemical potential energy. This is why I doubt we will see many orders of magnitude increases in the energy density of chemical batteries.

[albo2]

OK cool we still don't know the life span of these batteries only what can be expected statiscally through testing, lithium batteries are not dead after the 2000 3000 or 6000 cycles the producers quote but merely at 70 % or 80% correct me if I'm wrong where as you were correct lead acid is dead, so if that is more than your required range you won't even notice, hope I'm still around to enjoy my pack after the ten years and I'll report back, also Lithium is used as the anode there's plenty of scope for the cathode but oxygene would make them nice and light.
Forgot to mention BYD the largest manufacturer of batteries in the world are working on a FE battery that may not be as light as lithium but way cheaper, who knows I think GM has purchased the patent back for the NiCad and Panasonic are producing a battery for Tesla perhaps these will also make it to the market.