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Debate; How good does a battery have to be for EV's to go mainstream?

50K views 346 replies 28 participants last post by  PhantomPholly 
#1 ·
Note from Mod: The following is an off-shoot debate from this original thread: http://www.diyelectriccar.com/forums/showthread.php/scib-battery-informationi-72513.html

As requested, I've separated the two topics so both discussions can continue. Carry on, guys (and happy new year!).

They are already used in the Mitsubishi i-MiEV, along with a lot of the electric bus programs.
Yes I know but that does not impress me.





It is attractive because it is capable of very high charge and discharge rates and has a very high cycle life. This allows for some very fast quick charging, which is especially useful in the bus applications. The long cycle life also makes it more financially viable over the long term for bus companies.
I am aware of the high charge/discharge rates as that is what got me excited. This disappointment is the Energy Density, there is no positive way to spin those numbers, and as soon as I get the $/wh will be the final nail in the coffin which blows the financially viable argument out of the water.

Until there is a battery with Energy Densities of 300+wh/Kg, 4C+ Charge Discharge rates, 5000+ Recycles with 80% rated capacity, High/Low operating temperatures, and cost of around $00/Kwh EV's will remain a niche market and never obtain mass market appeal. That may be hard for enthusiast and advocates to admit, but that is reality as current market numbers clearly demonstrate even with lucrative Government subsidies. The EV market has collapsed. Only thing keeping it on life support is the US Government mandate for all auto manufactures to offer alternative fuel options to be able to sell their products in the USA. It is hurting everyone with that failed policy.
 
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#2 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

I volunteered a dodge neon conversion for raffle and put it out on quite a few forums and got no response what so ever...
Yes, I saw that. You offered up little or no credibility of being legitimate either as an EV converter or charity. No wonder you got no response. I still cannot find any evidence of a conversion of yours. Your web site sucks. You have been asked here to substantiate some claims, like a 275 mile per charge electric motorcycle which you can charge during dinner. And can we see a few of those 57 EV conversions and 27 motorcycles?
 
#3 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

Until there is a battery with Energy Densities of 300+wh/Kg, 4C+ Charge Discharge rates, 5000+ Recycles with 80% rated capacity, High/Low operating temperatures, and cost of around $00/Kwh EV's will remain a niche market and never obtain mass market appeal.
Yet there are those of us who see batteries as a better alternative than the status quo. Your mass market appeal will kill us all.
 
#11 · (Edited)
Re: SCiB battery information?

Yet there are those of us who see batteries as a better alternative than the status quo. Your mass market appeal will kill us all.
Major I understand and share your passion. but to deny market demands is business and career suicide. The battery is the road block to mass market appeal. Denying or ignoring the problem does not make it go away.

With that said I do believe sometime in the near future (5 to 10 years) the break through will come. That is why I was disappointed when I followed up on this new battery. It falls way short of Energy Density and price point.

There are too many companies spending huge sums of money to be the first to manufacture such a battery. The winner will practically own the world.
 
#5 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

Coincidence major, purely coincidence. We are technically shut down except for our internet sales so that we can work on converting the bus to an RV, working on the motorcycles and the Camaro for the raffle. No, I don't have a short fuse, let me explain, I used to be all into quite a few forums and one day we had a neighborhood kid (4 years old) get run over by a riding lawnmower and lose his feet and suffer other injuries. I volunteered a dodge neon conversion for raffle and put it out on quite a few forums and got no response what so ever to help this child and by the way win a vehicle. Most people especially on the social sites just continued to bitch about whatever, post stuff about the wonders of bacon, etc. I got a little peeved about how we hear everyone can come together as one big family when something big happens but when a childs life is altered forever no one even posts a comment on how sad it is. So, yes I guess I am a bit short fused when it comes to forums and people being critical of this and that of which very little is of any importance in the long run. So my family and I have decided to take a very long vacation so we can show our children what it is like in other less fortunate (and more fortunate) parts of the world. I do so apologize for offending those people that do not deserve it.
Details on the Camaro raffle?


It is surprising that the scib cells seem to have such low energy density. I thought I recalled it being much higher than that. An Altairnano 2008 brochure says their NanoSafe cells are about 90 Wh/kg (though 13.8V 88Ah pkg was 17 kg or about 70 Wh/kg) and considerably higher power density than other lithium-based cells (up to 4kW/kg, the main advantage they touted). Other advantages they touted were -50 C < charge temperature < 75 C, -60 C < discharge temp < 75 C, 15k full DoD cycle life to 85% original capacity, charge C rate of 50+, safe to over 200 C, 20 yr calender life.
I seem to remember higher energy density numbers as well. I have a feeling the info on that website isn't current.


Until there is a battery with Energy Densities of 300+wh/Kg, 4C+ Charge Discharge rates, 5000+ Recycles with 80% rated capacity, High/Low operating temperatures, and cost of around $00/Kwh EV's will remain a niche market and never obtain mass market appeal. That may be hard for enthusiast and advocates to admit, but that is reality as current market numbers clearly demonstrate even with lucrative Government subsidies. The EV market has collapsed. Only thing keeping it on life support is the US Government mandate for all auto manufactures to offer alternative fuel options to be able to sell their products in the USA. It is hurting everyone with that failed policy.
This isn't the thread for such a broad discussion. These cells clearly don't meet your wants or needs. Its as simple as that and no reason to comment on the matter further.
 
#6 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

Until there is a battery with Energy Densities of 300+wh/Kg, 4C+ Charge Discharge rates, 5000+ Recycles with 80% rated capacity, High/Low operating temperatures, and cost of around $00/Kwh EV's will remain a niche market and never obtain mass market appeal. That may be hard for enthusiast and advocates to admit, but that is reality as current market numbers clearly demonstrate even with lucrative Government subsidies. The EV market has collapsed. Only thing keeping it on life support is the US Government mandate for all auto manufactures to offer alternative fuel options to be able to sell their products in the USA. It is hurting everyone with that failed policy.
Here's where you are wrong. One you get to 300 wh/kg densities at an affordable cost C rates are less important because you build larger packs. Tesla can use a low C rate cell successfully because the pack is large enough to produce plenty of power at low C rates. Also with a larger pack it becomes less practical to economically provide enough power to charge at high C rates. Right now Tesla has the highest power charger at 90 kW, which is slightly above 1C for it's 85kWh pack.
You also don't need cycles to 5000+. With a 200 mile pack that's 1,000,000 miles, with a 300 mile pack that's 1,500,000 miles, why would you need a pack that outlasts 10 vehicles?

As for government support and mandates, it's quite obvious that this is driving the technology and adoption forward. Of course the technology isn't quite ready for mainstream yet but it has to start somewhere and it is moving forward, it's not going to happen overnight. Even if some of the early efforts fail it moves the bar higher.
 
#9 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

Here's where you are wrong. One you get to 300 wh/kg densities at an affordable cost C rates are less important because you build larger packs.
I am spot on correct. For an EV to go main stream must have 300 to 400 mile range, cost competitive with ICE car with all the bells and whistles, and to be fully capable of being recharged in 15 to 20 minutes. Only way to do that is with battery with 4C charge/discharge rates. Max Charge and Discharge are mutually inclusive. If you can push 4C in, then there is no problem taking 4C out. You may not need it but it comes with it.
 
#7 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

Yes, you need either high power or high energy pack, you don't need both, because high energy gives you high power for free. For EV use, the primary criterion is $/Wh, and secondarily, "good enough" energy density so that the amount of batteries chosen by the available funds won't weigh too much.

The only exception to this rule would be a special purpose racing vehicle which does not need range but needs extremely low weight and the cost does not matter.

I constantly find myself trying to explain this but some people just do not get it no matter what: The importance of "C rating" goes linearly down with the desired pack size, because what matters is power rating, and power = pack size * "C rating".
 
#8 · (Edited)
Re: SCiB battery information?

I constantly find myself trying to explain this but some people just do not get it no matter what: The importance of "C rating" goes linearly down with the desired pack size, because what matters is power rating, and power = pack size * "C rating".
Perhaps you do not understand. Until EV's come with a 300 to 400 mile range, can be recharged fully in 15 to 20 minutes, and low $/wh cost will never ever be main stream market. If you do not believe that, then you are in denial. To get 15 to 20 minute recharge also means high discharge rates. The two are mutually inclusive. To get that you are talking 300 wh/Kg, 4C charge/discharge rates, and $400/Kwh. Nothing comes close yet.

Please do not Blather on consumers do not need that, Fact is they demand it. Nor will the argument be then you need both an EV for short trips a ICE for long trips. Consumers will not stand for it period.
 
#10 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

Nope, you're still wrong, but obviously have your mind made up. The problem is you think EV's need to have all the benefits of EV's and all the benefits of ICE's, all rolled into one, for the same price. Not needed. When enough people see their neighbors driving an EV that costs a bit more up front and isn't necessarily able to travel endlessly on a whim, but costs so much less to operate, not prone to gas price fluctuation, better performance, and a smoother quieter ride, they'll start to get it. It's already happening with the Model S, even though it doesn't meet your range or charge requirements it's still blowing away other vehicles in it's class. People who know nothing about EV's are getting excited by the S, because it's a better vehicle in the aspects that really matter to most people.
 
#12 · (Edited)
Re: SCiB battery information?

The problem is you think EV's need to have all the benefits of EV's and all the benefits of ICE's, all rolled into one, for the same price.
Nope it is not what I think. Nor is it important what I think,. What matters is what the buying public thinks and that is what they demand. Nothing you or I can do to change that. All we can do is meet the demand,
 
#14 ·
Re: SCiB battery information?

You are projecting what you think the public thinks they need. I'm saying when faced with the reality of what an EV can do for them they can and do change their expectations. Model S reservations are growing already, well beyond the early adopter phase. It does not meet the criteria that you think the public thinks it needs to have.
 
#30 ·
The price is a technological issue, production scale alone will not do it. Batteries need better energy density so we get more capacity per dollar. The LEAF is having limited sales because it doesn't go far enough, and it doesn't go far enough because the battery energy density per dollar is too high. Nissan is also having some pack degradation issues in hotter climates because their battery technology is not robust enough. It's all related.
A123, Altairnano, and Scib provide the cycle life, C rates, and temperature tolerance, but their cost is too high and energy density is too low. Those can only be solved through technological advances.
For EV's to catch on they probably need at least 150 miles of range in most conditions, a pack that will last the life of the vehicle, or be cheap enough to replace once, and a purchase cost of around $30K without subsidies. Tesla should get close to that in 2015 with the Gen3 sedan, and continued technological advances in batteries should get us there in 5-8 years or so, IMO.
 
#42 ·
The price is a technological issue, production scale alone will not do it. Batteries need better energy density so we get more capacity per dollar. The LEAF is having limited sales because it doesn't go far enough, and it doesn't go far enough because the battery energy density per dollar is too high. Nissan is also having some pack degradation issues in hotter climates because their battery technology is not robust enough. It's all related.
A123, Altairnano, and Scib provide the cycle life, C rates, and temperature tolerance, but their cost is too high and energy density is too low. Those can only be solved through technological advances.
For EV's to catch on they probably need at least 150 miles of range in most conditions, a pack that will last the life of the vehicle, or be cheap enough to replace once, and a purchase cost of around $30K without subsidies. Tesla should get close to that in 2015 with the Gen3 sedan, and continued technological advances in batteries should get us there in 5-8 years or so, IMO.
Or we could make due with the batteries we have and reduce the weight of the vehicle massively and improve aero to get the same range with the same batteries.

The tech exists at a reasonable cost if mass produced to reduce vehicle weight dramatically, higher density batteries do not exist at a lower cost.

Furthermore the lighter you are the less batteries you would need so cost could come down further.
 
#31 ·
Actually the Leaf does go far enough. I have nearly 20,000 miles already on my Leaf and it's not even two years old. I put loads of miles. The perception of not enough is masked by the fact you can put enough gas in a car to go 300 miles and for some cars even less. What is not being pushed is that most of your daily driving is not even close to 300 miles and in fact well within the range of the Leaf. Sure its not for every one and neither is a truck or Suv or sports car. It has nothing to do with good enough batteries. Would it be nice to have more range. Sure. I'd like to have more gas in my car too so I would not have to visit the nasty gas stations as much.

Most have not lived with an electric car so come up with all sorts of excuses. I did not know either when I got involved with electric cars. Never figured I'd buy a factory one either but I did and find it much nicer than the gas cars. My TDI just sits gathering dust. I rarely need it but its there for when I do need to go further than my electric car range. My hybrid just happens to be in the form of two vehicles. One electric one diesel. Diesel just sits. Really.

The Leaf is also NOT an electric Versa.
 
#37 ·
Actually the Leaf does go far enough.
No it doesn't. Your next statement explains why:
Most have not lived with an electric car so come up with all sorts of excuses.
Exactly. Of course you and I know that the LEAF really does go far enough for most driving that most people do, (even though there are a good number of LEAF owners who struggle with the reduced winter range and loss of capacity in hot areas). But the facts of the real world is that few people are being motivated to spend $30K for a 70 mile LEAF. Nissan has admitted they overestimated demand for the car, and that demand is going to remain low until they lower the price, increase the range, and frankly improve the styling which is "meh" at best.
Make the car better looking, (and improve it's aerodynamics which will help it's range), install active temperature management or a more temperature tolerant chemistry, and give it a larger pack. If they don't do these things demand will remain low, and with other options becoming available demand may even drop.
 
#39 ·
I'll throw in my thoughts for the heck of it.


  • #1> The term "Maint Stream" is not itself very specific and could be taken in different ways.
    • 1a> As in are their BEVs making up a major if not dominate % of a market?...
      EV forklifts are that kind of main stream and have been for decades ... EV golf Carts are that kind of main stream and have been for decades ... etc ... etc.
    • 1b>Now if you mean something else ... like how good to batteries have to be to meet the needs of the vast majority of people the vast majority of the time ... batteries and BEVs already are that ... and have been for decades.
    • 1c>Now if you mean something else ... like how good do batteries have to be for consumers to buy BEV passenger cars as a significant % of all passenger cars bought ... that isn't as much about the batteries abilities as 1b above ... instead 1c is more about what people want ... not what they need ... what people want is just about people wanting it ... People buy cable TV service not because they need it ... and other examples as well ... they buy it because they want it ... what drives consumers to want something is a very fickle thing ... and a very dynamic thing ... and sometimes it is won and or lost in advertising and or social criteria and not about product performance specifications.
    • 1d>Now if you mean something else ... like how good does a BEV have to be for the Batteries to be virtually indistinguishable in cost and performance to ICE liquid fuel alternatives ... that is a VERY tall order ... if that is what you want ... Don't expect to see all of it in your life time ... if ever.
      • ~10.8kwh of energy to the wheel per Gallon of fuel.
      • ~3.9 kwh of energy to wheel per kg of fuel.
      • The exception is cost of energy to the wheel... It is not that rare for the BEV to be cheaper on a per energy basis.
  • #2> My own personal take on the #1 above:
    • It will be a combination of all 4 types ... all together moving at the same time ... I expect they will become more wanted as they become better and over time ... even if they don't get better than they already are.
    • I think that given what I expect in a combination ... Batteries do not need to be technologically better ... but it will help for as long as those ~80% driving ~50 Mile trips per day want a 300+ Mile range between fuel ups , and the ability to do said (~300 mile) refuel in just a few minutes of their time... the catch with that is that people are about the minutes of their time ... not necessarily the minutes it takes to do it behind the current ... which can potentially be a alternative to needing high power 4C+ charge rates for a battery with enough capacity for about 300+ miles per refuel/recharge.
 
#40 ·
Price is all that matters. To most the Leaf is a $38,000 Versa; after 40 miles the Volt is a $40,000 Cruze.

When battery technology makes it profitable to sell a 100 mile battery for $5,000 and the OEMs begin using large format LiFePO4 (or better) to bring simplicity back to EVs so they can sell a $20k car for $20k EVs will enter the mainstream.
 
#41 ·
Let's use the iPhone analogy again. Did the iPhone have to cost the same as a flip phone for people to jump on board? Nope, they cost more, and in fact they cost more to use as well. Did the iPhone work as well for making calls as a flip phone? Nope, many complained about the ATT network and the crappy coverage. So you have a more expensive technology that didn't perform as well as the cheaper technology in some respects, but it did much more in other respects so people were willing to over look the short comings. So in no way do EV's need to be as cheap as a $20K ICE for significant adoption, especially when the average vehicle purchase price in the US was $30K last year. However EV's do need to meet a basic threshold of useability, which I'm pretty sure is around 150 miles of range to get momentum. You can't do that effectively with current LiFePO4 density or cost. Both need to improve.
 
#45 ·
For what it's worth, the question is wrong.

It should be-How good does the charging infrastructure have to be to eliminate range anxiety?

Tesla have figured this out and are working on creating a decent charging infrastructure.

It means that people can buy smaller batteries in the knowledge that it is possible to make long journeys. Keeping cost and weight down.

I think range anxiety comes not from an irrational desire to travel distances that aren't normally travelled, but a practical knowledge that vehicles occasionally need to go longer distances to achieve tasks. People aren't willing to have an expensive machine that can't accomplish these tasks. With an extensive charging network this problem is mitigated.

It means laying down a lot of money on a long range EV becomes a purchase of convenience not of necessity. And as we know people are familiar with this decision processs, some will choose to economise, or be practical, some will be willing to spend
 
#46 ·
Another factor that I haven't found yet is that there is always a segment of a potential userbase that will watch things for a number of years before adopting. Even if they are certain they will eventually go through with it.

For example, hybrids. The price didn't go down, although fuel price did go up, but that isn't the point I'm making. There were plenty of people who wanted to see other people who were driving them for a long time and ask them how it worked out for them. For the Prius people saw that the 1st Gen was unreliable with expensive repairs and the 2nd Gen didn't have many of the spendy issues like the failing steering racks, burned out HV transaxles, 1st Gen batteries with terminal corrosion issues, and a few others that would be $1k+ fixes. People say the 2nd Gen was better and then made their move with the 3rd Generation. It took nearly a decade for people to see them around, get used to the idea and see others were happy. I think that we've got almost a decade to go before people who are in the fence who are watching the early adopters make their moves and see how things progress before they make their moves. I think that in that time they will see improvements in efficiency(hopefully), range(I'm pretty certain), and overal vehicle cost(not just battery costs).

Design a car right and you could make a high mileage vehicle. The EV1 was designed to have a huge volume and weight to its battery pack. The RAV4EV had a collosal battery pack. Tesla has a collosal pack too but engineered it into a car in a well tucked away form factor. I think as soon as they can get the battery in a good place and at a better price they've got it but not everyone is waiting for a 300 mile EV. I'm not and I've talked to plenty of non-EV enthusiasts about their thoughts about EVs and it seems that a car that does 150 miles in ideal conditions would be perfect for almost all in terms of future battery age overhead, detours, AC/heat overhead, and sudden change of daily plans overhead for a family who already owns two cars. 100 miles of overhead factored mileage would cover quite a lot. I think the Leaf is just under where it really needs to be for the average persons comfort range, double it and people would get comfy quick. Yes, it does come at a price.

I see many people taking a gas car and then adding the price of a motor, inverter, battery, etc to the car. I'd imagine that the electronics and motor would not cost too much is mass produced(think of the $200+ Blu Ray player that is now $50 or sometimes less). Now remove the cost of the gas engine and factor the real mass produced costs in and the battery actually becomes a larger percentage of cost. There is no way that the major auto manufacturers are paying what we pay for batteries, I know that Tesla sure isn't by going with commodity cells.
 
#47 ·
I think as soon as they can get the battery in a good place and at a better price they've got it but not everyone is waiting for a 300 mile EV. I'm not and I've talked to plenty of non-EV enthusiasts about their thoughts about EVs and it seems that a car that does 150 miles in ideal conditions would be perfect for almost all in terms of future battery age overhead, detours, AC/heat overhead, and sudden change of daily plans overhead for a family who already owns two cars. 100 miles of overhead factored mileage would cover quite a lot. I think the Leaf is just under where it really needs to be for the average persons comfort range, double it and people would get comfy quick. Yes, it does come at a price.
This is pretty much what I've been saying, around 150 miles of range between $30-$40K is probably the sweet spot to really get things moving.
 
#51 ·
Price is all that matters. To most the Leaf is a $38,000 Versa; after 40 miles the Volt is a $40,000 Cruze.
NO, Jack Rickard thinks the Leaf is a $38K Versa and that the Volt is a $40K Cruze. I own a Leaf and drive it daily and I can assure you it is not even close to being an expensive Versa. I have driven the Versa. The Versa is a POS.
 
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