[hbthink]

I agree, love to get my hands on a leaf drivetrain! Also again IMHO the Nissan Drivetrain is far superior to that in the Tesla, although I will admit to not having much time with a Tesla. What I like is a non-proprietary plug (ie J1772 and Chademo in Leaf), programmed creep that feels like a ICE motor vehicle, very smooth regen which seems way more effective, much superior user interface, better feel, smooth acceleration

the only con

not the same performance but much much lower price. I believe the Tesla Roadster was end of lifed, probably so as not to saturate a very small market. It helps that Nissan was able to spend big bucks in R&D that Tesla did not have.

[NZero]

Originally Posted by Nathan219

A lot of us get parts from salvaged vehicles I see the leaf as a source of a really good salvaged drive train. The car’s styling doesn’t appeal to me but the technology under its hood does. I know it is wrong to wish bad things to happen but I can’t wait till Leafs start hitting things.

I agree merely on styling alone, getting the parts is just an added bonus

[dtbaker]

Originally Posted by hardym

Having been a Lead Acid EV and LiFePo4 EV owner, I gotta comment:...The Leaf price for a brand new EV after CA and Obama rebates is about $22K.

really? I heard it was a lot close to $32k, and only for the first 500k units or something like that. Plus the $2k charger in your garage, right?

Originally Posted by hardym

I cant belive that anyone is still considering converting their own. The prices I've seen for chinese LifePO4 that can get you on a highway for 50+ miles is $10-15K.

yeah.... about that. significantly less than $32k. But the Leaf does have the advantage of bank financing.

Originally Posted by hardym

The additional investment in parts alone (controller, motor, BMS, etc) is easily another $5K.

? the $10k-$15k you mention INCLUDES all that and batteries, right? as an EV builder you know that?

Originally Posted by hardym

And, the conversion price will likely be more than a new Leaf price.

I doubt that... by half.

[DavidDymaxion]

You are making a good economic argument (I personally want something much faster than a Leaf, but that's another story.).

I'm curious how lifetime costs will compare. If your Leaf breaks out of warranty, is that $1000 per repair? You won't be able to shop for the cheapest part, you'll have to get the right Ni$$an part.

Originally Posted by hardym

Having been a Lead Acid EV and LiFePo4 EV owner, I gotta comment:

I took another test drive in a Leaf yesterday, preparing for delivery in late June. Quite impressive. nearly 100M range, highways speeds, etc. you've heard it before. The Leaf price for a brand new EV after CA and Obama rebates is about $22K.

I cant belive that anyone is still considering converting their own. The prices I've seen for chinese LifePO4 that can get you on a highway for 50+ miles is $10-15K. The additional investment in parts alone (controller, motor, BMS, etc) is easily another $5K. Unless you start with a great car ($4K), you'll end up with a crappy looking EV. The chance that you actually get to drive your parts down the freeway is only about 50%, meaning that most EV conversions crash and burn due to conversions exhaustion. And, the conversion price will likely be more than a new Leaf price.

The Leaf is a complete EV game changer. I'm lucky to live in a target community (San Diego) that has an early adoptor program. Life will be good again.

Mark.

[Earthwindwater]

Originally Posted by NZero

I disagree, I think for many its the pay as you build and learn as you go that makes the conversion route appealing. And a conversion means you pick you car (whatever it looks like) pick your power plant and pick you range. No such options exist with the leaf.

And price wise, BMW are looking to compete with Nissan and you can get a converted Hyundai or Mitsi for about the same. Its the thrill of the build.

Well put! I agree, though I am sure not everyone loves the excitement of building or converting your own car. I have learned so much from my conversion and would LOVE to build an EV truck or the like.

[rochesterricer]

Originally Posted by Nathan219

A lot of us get parts from salvaged vehicles I see the leaf as a source of a really good salvaged drive train. The car’s styling doesn’t appeal to me but the technology under its hood does. I know it is wrong to wish bad things to happen but I can’t wait till Leafs start hitting things.

That was going to be my point. As cars like the Leaf become more common, they will get in accidents and start showing up in junk yards.

[Carbonfree]

I think the DIY conversion projects will likely shink to an even smaller niche. If your goal is merely to drive an electric car, there is no need to go through the grief of converting an old gas car to EV. It doesn't make financial sense and it is not safe for a family or any sort of long term user (3-10 years).

There will always be the hobbyist types that just want to do their own projects. That will probably continue. But it will be a very minor niche.

I would say that the overall DIY market will shrink now that the Leaf and other EVs are coming out. The people that just want to go EV are going to leave the DIY market. The remaining DIY market will be more limited.

Over time, I suspect the remaining DIY market to shift into modifying EVs. In five years when the Leaf or other EVs are used and on a 2nd or 3rd owner, people will want to start modifying those EVs. Starting with a car, that was designed to be an EV, will make more sense.

When that happens, I suspect some of the real auto parts suppliers will start carrying EV related parts. Then we won't have to deal with these unreliable suppliers in the DIY market now.

[valerun]

Originally Posted by Carbonfree

I think the DIY conversion projects will likely shink to an even smaller niche. If your goal is merely to drive an electric car, there is no need to go through the grief of converting an old gas car to EV. It doesn't make financial sense and it is not safe for a family or any sort of long term user (3-10 years).

There will always be the hobbyist types that just want to do their own projects. That will probably continue. But it will be a very minor niche.

I would say that the overall DIY market will shrink now that the Leaf and other EVs are coming out. The people that just want to go EV are going to leave the DIY market. The remaining DIY market will be more limited.

Over time, I suspect the remaining DIY market to shift into modifying EVs. In five years when the Leaf or other EVs are used and on a 2nd or 3rd owner, people will want to start modifying those EVs. Starting with a car, that was designed to be an EV, will make more sense.

When that happens, I suspect some of the real auto parts suppliers will start carrying EV related parts. Then we won't have to deal with these unreliable suppliers in the DIY market now.

Disagree. DIY will grow but it will evolve.

There will be three effects in play:

1. Higher availability of ready-made EVs. This has negative effect on DIY as you mentioned

2. Enormous amount of marketing spend by the big OEMs promoting their EVs will make a LOT MORE people want EVs. Now, a lot of those new people will not be able to afford / want to buy a brand new car. This is going to be a significant positive effect on DIY

3. Finally, moving EVs to mass will energize the conversion industry itself and we will finally break away from the situation when you need a PhD in EE to convert your car. I see bolt-on kits for most common car models being produced by these companies and installed by your regular mechanic shop. This will have a strong positive effect on DIY.

These same companies will then add 'EV performance tuning' products & services targeting new EVs. Thus begining the EV aftermarket industry that you hinted at. Gasoline car aftermarket today is ~$66 BILLION in the US alone. If we do have 1M EVs on the roads by 2015 as Obama wanted (0.4% of the total US fleet), it is reasonable to assume similar relative aftermarket at ~ a quarter billion $.

V

[Carbonfree]

I think our outlook is very similar on what is likely to happen. However I don't see much potential for a bolt-on kit to change a gas car to EV.
It is simply not that easy and every car becomes a custom conversion job. There are simply way too many different types of used cars. Different year models, etc. The liability issues would be massive.

I am not sure a business model exists that would make it worthwhile. I am sure many will try. Many have tried already. Many have already failed. You see some of these conversion shops popping up and trying to also sell kits. Then they disappear when they run out of money.

[valerun]

Originally Posted by Carbonfree

I think our outlook is very similar on what is likely to happen. However I don't see much potential for a bolt-on kit to change a gas car to EV.
It is simply not that easy and every car becomes a custom conversion job. There are simply way too many different types of used cars. Different year models, etc. The liability issues would be massive.

I am not sure a business model exists that would make it worthwhile. I am sure many will try. Many have tried already. Many have already failed. You see some of these conversion shops popping up and trying to also sell kits. Then they disappear when they run out of money.

;-) Not quite. Look at the data before claiming that every conversion is a custom affair. The market is not THAT fragmented...

Toyota Camry installed base for just XV30 (2001–2006) model (and hence same mounts / couplers / etc can be used) is estimated at 2-3 million cars in the US alone. BMW E46 (1998-2006) is estimated to be ~1-1.5 million cars in the US alone. Hardly small numbers. If you believe in 0.4% penetration of new EVs by 2015, why wouldn't you believe in similar potential for these hassle-free conversions (which would be ~4-6,000 vehicles for BMW E46 3 series - again, hardly small). The problem with all the conversion shops is that they are taking any random job that is thrown their way. As a result, they don't have a chance to reach any kind of scale and fail due to underestimation of effort required for custom conversions.