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  #1921  
Old 12-28-2010, 02:50 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantry11b View Post
just a quick note - a very rudimentary water thermometer was not invented until 1593 by galileo, and even then there was no standards for anyone to follow.
at the begining of the 17th century there still was no standard to measure temperature. it was not until 1709 that the mercury thermometer standard was set by farenheit. celcius did not establish his scale until 1742. least you forget, it was during the little ice age when that happened.
so now the big boogyman of man made climate change, measured in parts of a degree, are supposed to scare us with a guess as to what temperature was 500 years ago, 1000 years ago, 10,000 years ago.
it's a guess. remember that earthday was started by "scientists" claiming the begining of a new ice age; and that was in 1970.
so exactly how did global cooling turn into global warming? it didn't.
taking the non exact figures from the 1700's and comparing them to today, when the little ice age did not end until the 1890's, it like measuring the temperature in your frig and then running outside into the sun and claiming that there is global warming because the temp is higher now that it is out of the frig.
there is no accurate science that can establish world wide temperatures beyond the invention of the thermometer. oh you can guess, but you can't measure. you might be able to say it was hotter when there was no ice, or colder when the earth was mostly covered with a sheet of ice, in those areas where there was ice, but there is not a single way to say it was a single degree, or part thereof, or 5 degrees or any specific degree warmer or colder beyond what we can accurately measure with a scale everyone can use.
so you go and worship at the alter of man made global warming but don't expect me to change my life because or accept any change in law forcing me to worship at that alter, just because you think the sky is falling.
Good history lesson, but not ENTIRELY true that we cannot infer temperatures in the past.

If nothing else, we have written records of freezing temps back 2,000 years or more in many spots on earth. That alone can give you a scale of "number of days above / below freezing" which can give you a modest guesstimate of average temps. Too, although there was no absolute standard, the human body is pretty darned good at providing a "relative" temperature reading. Long ago historians were totally unconcerned about doctoring history, and thus have been proven time and again to have reported accurately and reliably. Reports such as "unseasonable heat" or "bitter cold" in a given year or years can give us an idea of the swings and trends.

Accurate to 1/10th of a degree? Certainly not. However, when the Vikings left their mining tools in a cave they had frequented for over 100 years and were unable to retrieve them due to permafrost that did not lift for 500 years, and then those tools were found entirely intact only recently, you can rest assured that the average temperature dropped significantly during that period (a mini-ice age).

Other factors give an indication of climate. The Northern coast of Africa was once lush and green (in the time of Caesar). It is now desert. Was it global warming, or did the locust swarm of mankind and his nasty pets (like camels and goats - both of which not only eat the leaves of plants but eat the roots thus killing them) that turned this lush paradise into a hell hole? My vote is "human overpopulation," which is still man made climate change but is NOT "Global Warming."

6 billion human beings DO have the power to collectively screw up our environment. Whether or not GW actually plays any real role in that, or if GW is actually COMPENSATING for something else we've screwed up, is - IMHO - completely unproven.
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  #1922  
Old 12-28-2010, 04:48 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Phantom,

I challenge you to find any long term global temperature records that are accurate to 1/10th a degree

Urban heat islands are real and they do cause significant changes in regional climate. Larger cities can often have spring arrive a few weeks earlier due to this effect. But thats not exactly something to get carrried away over, just interesting to note.

I did read a while ago that there are records in japan (a relatively stable nation for several centuries) that account the arrival of spring using signals like cherry blossoms going back as far as some 500 years. A more recent report did get published if I remember right but I can't remember where I found it. But, it's only one part of the world so even if nothing alarming is found using those records, its easy to dismiss.

Here is an example of more dangerous human caused climate change:
http://2pat.wordpress.com/2009/05/29...-the-aral-sea/

Can we screw things up? - absolutely

Duncan,

I've already seen most of that as its all quite old by now. If the "team", as they are called by friend and foe alike, were to spend half as much time answering the technical side of their critics' claims as they do attacking their credentials, they might have been able to salvage the graph in the view of the public. Instead, their bitterness shines through every rebuttal or review contribution they touch as they seem to be on a mission to have their reputations attacked.

The truth is the hockey stick graph marks a pivotal moment in this era of global warming alarm - twice. Once when it was first created and promoted, and again when a cloud of controversy was cast on it, but most have already moved on to other things.
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  #1923  
Old 12-28-2010, 06:10 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantry11b View Post
remember that earthday was started by "scientists" claiming the begining of a new ice age; and that was in 1970.
so exactly how did global cooling turn into global warming? it didn't.
At best this is a gross mis-representation.

I think you should do allot more research ... you might find it educational.

I know I have on occasion enjoyed learning bits and pieces about how our scientific understanding of various things has improved over time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantry11b View Post
there is no accurate science that can establish world wide temperatures beyond the invention of the thermometer.
Incorrect.

Also , you seem to be under the false assumption that thermometer's directly measure temperature ... they do not.

There is no direct measure of temperature at any scale.

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantry11b View Post
so you go and worship at the alter of man made global warming but don't expect me to change my life because or accept any change in law forcing me to worship at that alter, just because you think the sky is falling.
Believe whatever you like ... my objection is when you present false , or misleading statements as facts ( as you did above ) ... To which I would expect you to better educate yourself about the things you are making claims about... of course I might just be disappointed ... after all there is nothing to keep you from making any wild statement you like ... well researched or not.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Quote:
Originally Posted by david85 View Post
Right now, there is no way to measure the temperature of the earth at any single instant in time. You can compile records from several stations over a period of time and average them, but if you want an accurate snapshot of a single point in time that will tell you the exact average temperature of the earth - there is currently no way to do it and that includes satellites. The very term of "global temperature" in essence - is faulty.
While nothing is perfect ... etc .. etc... I would just add a small reminder.

Any measurement of temperature is an average of data points over a given space ... and simultaneously ... an average of data points over a given period of time.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of anything 'at a single instant in time'.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of anything without averaging data points over a given space.

It is a false objection to suggest this is only true for the Earth in global temperature ... as it is true for any temperature measurement ... all the way down to and smaller than individual molecules.

The term 'Global Temperature' ... is not faulty ... it is as accurate to use as 'oven temperature' , 'engine temperature' , 'air temperature' , etc... all measurements of temperature including Global temperature are data point averages over a given space and time.

Just as 'engine temperature' only uses a finite number of sensors ... the resolution of those finite number of sensors is limited ... and the number of them limits the resolution of the 'engine temperature' average reading ... but sense the temperature is the average ... less than infinite data points does not make is less of an average ... it only limits the resolution.
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  #1924  
Old 12-28-2010, 07:48 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by IamIan View Post
While nothing is perfect ... etc .. etc... I would just add a small reminder.

Any measurement of temperature is an average of data points over a given space ... and simultaneously ... an average of data points over a given period of time.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of anything 'at a single instant in time'.

It is not possible to measure the temperature of anything without averaging data points over a given space.

It is a false objection to suggest this is only true for the Earth in global temperature ... as it is true for any temperature measurement ... all the way down to and smaller than individual molecules.

The term 'Global Temperature' ... is not faulty ... it is as accurate to use as 'oven temperature' , 'engine temperature' , 'air temperature' , etc... all measurements of temperature including Global temperature are data point averages over a given space and time.

Just as 'engine temperature' only uses a finite number of sensors ... the resolution of those finite number of sensors is limited ... and the number of them limits the resolution of the 'engine temperature' average reading ... but sense the temperature is the average ... less than infinite data points does not make is less of an average ... it only limits the resolution.
While your generalizations are not in themselves incorrect, you seem to have missed my point since your examples are not really applicable to what I said.
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  #1925  
Old 12-29-2010, 04:14 AM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by david85 View Post
While your generalizations are not in themselves incorrect, you seem to have missed my point since your examples are not really applicable to what I said.
The examples were not about your point they were about the point I was making about your statement ... however ... if you prefer without examples ... bellow is the stripped down version of my 2 points.

Quote:
Originally Posted by david85
Right now, there is no way to measure the temperature of the earth at any single instant in time
It is not possible to do this for any object , not just the Earth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by david85
The very term of "global temperature" in essence - is faulty.
It is not faulty ... It it 100% in agreement with the methods we use for talking about the temperature of any object.

- - - - - - -

Given the context of the rest of that post I don't think it was your overall point that I was disagreeing with.

It seemed to me your point was just that you ( and Roy Spencer ) find the current methods of measuring global temperature do not to have the accuracy or resolution you would like them to have.

I don't disagree with that ... That is a very different thing... I just wanted to add a small reminder / point of my own about some of the statements you made which I found to be at best , inaccurate / misleading.
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  #1926  
Old 12-29-2010, 12:21 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Infantry points out in the 70's there where scientists who expected an imminent mini ice age but mistakenly assumes scientists have made a large back flip in now predicting (and by the evidence accurately) that we are actually the cause of AGW. Never let the facts get in the way of a good emotive statement eh Infantry?

If I was to take those who seriously did expect global temp decline seriously, given the recent evidence of sustained warming, I would take the present concern by well educated scientists, even more seriously rather than evidence to the contrary like you Infantry as turning around the slide into a minor ice age is not insignificant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantry11b View Post
so exactly how did global cooling turn into global warming? it didn't.
What is well understood is that there will be 'tipping points' attached to the current warming which will make AGW even harder to reverse, should we develop the will to do so.

Phantom, speaking of creating solutions to reducing CO2 levels, I read a very concerning article recently which spoke to the economic global depression that will result from the reality of 'peak oil' and I don't have the confidence you do that there will be the resources of such a costly stunt as pulling off reducing CO2 by technology. Once again, I would like to be wrong!

Here's an informative website Infantry to help you understand why Ian suggests you do some more research.
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming...nd-future.html
Quote:
Since the 1880s, surface air and water temperatures have been measured regularly at a sufficient number of stations around the world to calculate a global average temperature each year. Despite rare daily temperature records going as far back as 1741 in Sweden and 1871 in China, it is difficult to accurately reconstruct global average temperatures prior to 1880 because written records are not available in sufficient quantity. To understand climate trends when Henry VIII ruled England, for example, climate experts must rely on biological or physical archives—known as "proxies"—that preserve past temperature. Tree rings, coral skeletons, and glacial ice cores are proxies for annual temperature records, while boreholes (holes drilled deep into Earth's crust) can show temperature shifts over longer periods of time.

Last edited by karlos; 12-29-2010 at 12:47 PM. Reason: Re jigging!
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  #1927  
Old 12-29-2010, 01:35 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Just to clarify, Dr. Spencer does generally defend the methods. My point was that measuring the coolant temperature of an engine is not the same as trying to average the earth's temperature. The scope and scale are worlds apart.

You can also simulate magnetic flux of a motor or heat transfer properties of an ICE in a computer model. Using similar principles you can try to simulate the climate, but again, the scope and scale are not the same.
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  #1928  
Old 12-29-2010, 02:50 PM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by david85 View Post
My point was that measuring the coolant temperature of an engine is not the same as trying to average the earth's temperature. The scope and scale are worlds apart.
I would agree the scope and the scale are very different.

I still don't think I generally disagree with what I perceive as your concern for a need for greater accuracy or resolution to global temperature measurements.

I only added a 'reminder' / my two bits about 2 statements you made that I felt were giving an inaccurate / misleading inference ... intentional inference or not.

Both of which even with the easier scale and scope of engine temperature ... would still be effectively the same 'reminders' / my 2 bits.
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  #1929  
Old 12-30-2010, 08:27 AM
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PhantomPholly PhantomPholly is offline
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by david85 View Post
Phantom,

I challenge you to find any long term global temperature records that are accurate to 1/10th a degree
Thought I clearly indicated that such is not possible, only "relative indicators," and it was I challenging those who believe that they DO know those precise temps. Well, so much for my communicating skills!

Quote:
Urban heat islands are real and they do cause significant changes in regional climate. Larger cities can often have spring arrive a few weeks earlier due to this effect. But thats not exactly something to get carrried away over, just interesting to note.
It may, or may not, be more than "interesting" if the alteration is non-temporary. Personally, I believe urbanization is more responsible for any net temperature changes than CO2, but I base that solely on my personal gut feel having seen satellite thermal images.

Quote:
I did read a while ago that there are records in japan (a relatively stable nation for several centuries) that account the arrival of spring using signals like cherry blossoms going back as far as some 500 years. A more recent report did get published if I remember right but I can't remember where I found it. But, it's only one part of the world so even if nothing alarming is found using those records, its easy to dismiss.

Here is an example of more dangerous human caused climate change:
http://2pat.wordpress.com/2009/05/29...-the-aral-sea/

Can we screw things up? - absolutely
<Phantom starts digging his fallout shelter>

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  #1930  
Old 12-30-2010, 08:36 AM
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Default Re: The Climate Change Debate Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by karlos View Post
Phantom, speaking of creating solutions to reducing CO2 levels, I read a very concerning article recently which spoke to the economic global depression that will result from the reality of 'peak oil' and I don't have the confidence you do that there will be the resources of such a costly stunt as pulling off reducing CO2 by technology. Once again, I would like to be wrong!
All depends on WHEN "peak oil" hits, [edit] how rapidly supply drops off, [/edit] and whether it happens before or after decent batteries. We have coal and natural gas enough to last us centuries in the U.S., and the self-styled "conservationists" may actually have done us all a favor by "hoarding" our remaining oil reserves.

It continually fascinates me that people are obsessively focused on what they style as an "under supply of stuff" rather than an "oversupply of people." Only the Chinese seem to acknowledge that at all, and their efforts to do something about it have only resulted in a slowing of growth.

According to the bible, God said, "Be fruitful and many." It's time that a whole bunch of folks need to get the message that we've overachieved on that goal...

Last edited by PhantomPholly; 12-30-2010 at 08:43 AM.
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