[bjfreeman]

as with many discussion here the demographics of the area one lives influences the economy.
each country has ways of dealing with things that may not be in an other country.
Back to Tesla model S.
They plan to manufacture 50,000.
@$90K+ how many will buy at this price.
remember the key is to get a production flow so the price can come down

[JRP3]

The Model S has a range of prices, from $57K and up, and they plan to ship 5,000 cars this year building to 20,000 per year. Then next year they plan to start shipping the Model X SUV, then the next generation less expensive sedan in 2014-15.

[PhantomPholly]

Originally Posted by JRP3

Double the range, with no increase in price. Sure.....

For two decades battery capacity has doubled about every 10 years (see page 3). Oh, I don't know - it may be entirely reasonable (...or, not...). However, it's useful to remember that things like nano-materials science is just taking off and new research techniques are now evaluating the potential of thousands of materials in the same time it used to take to review a single material in the past.

There are several claims put forth in just the past year which show enormous promise. Envia claims they will have EV batteries 1/3 the weight and 1/2 the cost per KWh on the market within 18 months.

While none have yet proven out YET, only one needs to succeed to make this a reasonable claim.

[PhantomPholly]

Originally Posted by Tatsushige

People change their cars ever every 5 years or there about.

Small correction on this - last I heard the average fleet age is about 10-11 years. That means that it takes about 10 years for 50% of cars to be replaced.

While true that those with more money buy new cars more frequently (some every year), even if an electric Mercedes came out this year with a 1,000 mile range for $20,000 it would still be about 10 years before half of the world's cars were electric.

That, by the way, is not necessarily a bad thing. Even a 10% reduction in petrol cars would have a noticeable impact on gas prices. Thus, for all of you who want EVs to catch on quickly by keeping gas prices high, promoting too many subsidies to achieve that goal may actually have the opposite effect. Every action has "unintended consequences..."

[Tatsushige]

Originally Posted by PhantomPholly

Small correction on this - last I heard the average fleet age is about 10-11 years. That means that it takes about 10 years for 50% of cars to be replaced

Originally Posted by PhantomPholly

While true that those with more money buy new cars more frequently (some every year), even if an electric Mercedes came out this year with a 1,000 mile range for $20,000 it would still be about 10 years before half of the world's cars were electric.

That, by the way, is not necessarily a bad thing. Even a 10% reduction in petrol cars would have a noticeable impact on gas prices. Thus, for all of you who want EVs to catch on quickly by keeping gas prices high, promoting too many subsidies to achieve that goal may actually have the opposite effect. Every action has "unintended consequences..."

Nope sorry, once a car is 5 years old the road tax on it doubles, you have to have it inspected every year and passed to be used on the road. Most families will sell the car and buy a new one.

Yes there are cars on the road that are 10 years old but they are normally owned by students or poor people.

I have not seen anything over 15 years old on the road. No correction I did see a 1988 Countach a few years ago, but I bet that guy was paying for it.

But most of the cars over 8 years old are now shipped to Africa and sold off, even public buses, ambulances are fire trucks are getting shipped off.

They showed a program a few weeks ago about Africa and it was funny seeing a Ambulance with all the Japanese markings on it still, being used as a Bus.

This was on the news a few days ago, about Japanese savings.

Savings for average Japanese family top ¥16 million ($US200,000)

The average Japanese family has ¥16.64 million ($US208,000) in savings, more than twice the average annual salary in the nation of 128 million.

2011 saw a 0.4 percent increase from a year earlier, with households of two or more people holding average debt of ¥4.62 million ($US57,750).

Japanese have long enjoyed a reputation as disciplined savers, as rates generally declined in the West in recent decades, including the United States, where economists and politicians have bemoaned low savings rates.

However, the data recently released by the internal affairs ministry also point to a widening savings rate gap, as the nation looks to kick-start its moribund economy and deal with a rapidly aging population, which has put increasing stress on public coffers.

Two-thirds of households saved less than the average ¥16.64 million ($US208,000), the data said, with median savings standing at ¥9.91 million($US123,875)

Some 10.2 percent of the top-saving families had more than ¥40 million ($US500,000) each, while the bottom 11.2 percent had a cushion of less than ¥1 million ($US12,500), the ministry said.

This is one of the reasons Japanese buy new cars so easy.

Also Japan has just found a hell of a lot of Rare Earth which means once they start mining it they no longer need to rely on China and I can but EV will really take off ...

This was in the news Yesterday

Saturday, June 30, 2012

Major rare earth deposit found near remote isle of Minamitorishima

A group of researchers says it has found a mineral deposit that could contain massive amounts of rare earth minerals in the seabed around the island of Minamitorishima about 2,000 km southeast of Tokyo.

The group, headed by University of Tokyo professor Yasuhiro Kato, an expert in earth resources, said Thursday that an estimated 6.8 million tons of rare earth metals, including dysprosium, could exist in the mud in the deposit, which is within Japan's exclusive economic zone.

That amount would be equivalent to some 230 years' worth of domestic consumption of the minerals, which are indispensable for making high-tech products like hybrid cars and cellphones.

Once a mining technique is developed to secure the minerals from the seabed, Japan, which now relies mostly on China for rare earths, may be able to attain complete self-sufficiency.
The team drilled at three locations 5,600 meters below the surface off Minamitorishima, which belongs to the Ogasawara chain.

Mud samples contained up to 1,700 parts per million of rare earths such as yttrium. The average concentration was 1,070 ppm, the group said.

Highly concentrated rare earth minerals were also found in samples collected about 180 km north of the island.

Considering the findings, the team estimates that mud containing rare earth minerals could spread over an area measuring 1,000 sq. km.

Even with current technology, it is possible to collect at least 15,000 tons of the mud per day, Kato said, adding exploration should be carried out as soon as possible to determine where rare earth minerals can be collected most efficiently.

Currently, China accounts for more than 90 percent of the rare earth elements produced in the world. Since 2010, it has reduced its export quotas, arguing the restraints are justified to protect its natural resources and environment.

Japan, together with the United States and the European Union, on Wednesday asked the World Trade Organization to establish a panel to determine whether China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals are permissible under WTO trade rules.

[JRP3]

Once a mining technique is developed to secure the minerals from the seabed, Japan, which now relies mostly on China for rare earths, may be able to attain complete self-sufficiency.

Translation: Yeah there is a pile of stuff down there but right now we can't get it.

[Tatsushige]

Originally Posted by JRP3

Translation: Yeah there is a pile of stuff down there but right now we can't get it.

You need to read again.

Even with current technology, it is possible to collect at least 15,000 tons of the mud per day, Kato said, adding exploration should be carried out as soon as possible to determine where rare earth minerals can be collected most efficiently.

Japan can mine it now ....

[PhantomPholly]

Originally Posted by Tatsushige

Nope sorry, once a car is 5 years old the road tax on it doubles, you have to have it inspected every year and passed to be used on the road. Most families will sell the car and buy a new one.

Sorry, forgot you were not in the USA... Average U.S. Car Life So, here it is 8 years average (half older, half newer).

Also Japan has just found a hell of a lot of Rare Earth which means once they start mining it they no longer need to rely on China and I can but EV will really take off ...

This was in the news Yesterday

Awesome news! And I'll bet that is a big source of national pride for the Japanese (some traditional rivalries there). In any event it will be good for consumers.

[Tatsushige]

Originally Posted by PhantomPholly

Sorry, forgot you were not in the USA... Average U.S. Car Life So, here it is 8 years average (half older, half newer).

Awesome news! And I'll bet that is a big source of national pride for the Japanese (some traditional rivalries there). In any event it will be good for consumers.

Not a problem with the car life, a lot forget I am in Japan.

Yes the rare earth find is good for Japan and the USA as both need to buy from China at the moment.

[JRP3]

Originally Posted by Tatsushige

You need to read again.



Japan can mine it now ....

Right but is it cost effective? The reason China dominates is because they can produce it cheaply. We have rare earth mines sitting closed in the US because of pricing, not availability.