the worst part about these non-serviceable designs is it gives all the FUD people tons of ammo to attack EVs with
on other cars, you replace one module after then ten year mark or something, maybe more like 15, and the pack is fine
I'll add to what Brian said, which is pretty much what I would have posted.
Much of the luddite lore out there is based on the iPhone battery experience of it lasting two or three years. These very same people keep
buying iPhones, by the way...
Tesla Model S has been on the road for a decade and almost all of them are still running high SoC (in the low 90%'s, iirc). I don't see pack replacement for 15-20 years in cars with thermally equalized
and thermally conditioned cells that have not been thermally overstressed with high current charge/discharge.
No, you won't have "one cell go bad and replace it to extend the pack life". They should all go down together. Brian already covered the new cell among aged cells...it will not increase its contribution to the gang beyond what the worst of the gang (in theory each and each one) can do.
So servicing a pack is not a priority - Tesla seems to hate the secondary market (us here, solar, grid storage), and appears to want cells scrapped.
tesla will happily sell you a whole new pack for $20k
"see??? you have to replace the whole pack every 10 years for 20k!!!" - fud people, probably
And you will happily buy it, unless you got the f*cked up structural battery. Why?
Because everybody on this forum is HAPPY to pay $10,000 for an 80% SoC Tesla battery pack. Solar people are tickled. Grid guys...a bit grumpy.
Ten years later, DIYEC guy and Solar guy want more than 60% SoC, so Grid guy snaps those up for $6k.
EVERYBODY is happy. Except F-250 guy, because everything EV is spoken for and he's paying $12/gallon for Diesel, and $100/gallon for the bottled pee he adds for emissions.
Now, let's remember that EV batteries will need to be replaced in 2037, not now...a time when lithium mines are just starting up, and when execs are poking ceremonial holes in the ground with shovels for new battery plants.
Battery cost will come down, substantially, just like solar did. It'll take a bit longer, but by 2037, your $13,500 66kWh Bolt EV pack may be $9k. Now push that down the food chain I described. A Bolt EV battery, if it continued production (which it won't) will be $10k, a salvage will be $8k, an 80% will be $6k, a grid will be $3k, and the recycler will pay $1000.
So, no. A replacement EV battery is not $20k out of pocket. More like $2k for the Bolt, maybe $4k.
This is where I think Tesla is really f*cking up in the long term. All Structural Battery Tesla guys can do (assuming DIY can't figure out how to extract the cells, intact) is get laughed out of town when they bring their 80% car in for recycling...can't repurpose the battery, and the recycler is buying battery packs for $1000, not $8000, or $6000.
An engine is $5k...a diesel engine is $18k, as is a 650HP vette engine with a supercharger...our motors stay in the car, yet the replacement battery can power a dual motor car with 650HP.
All's good - stay off Facebook unless you're fully prepared to pee in the FUDders' koolaide. The Cult is all about creating belief in nonsense, and it sounds like you started believing some of it....don't feel too bad - the talk g points are dropped into social media by think tanks...fossil fuels have a lot to lose, but the oil industry doesn't care.