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EV Pickups are likely to remain expensive for some time.

So just because they may start to exist won’t guarantee widespread mainstream acceptance
 

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Phoenix Motor Cars has been producing trucks for years now - they just limit their market to fleet sales.


Cheaper batteries are coming. Recent price drops from Tesla and others are still almost perfectly tracking the 6.5 year cycle of exponential decline, and there are now literally thousands of innovative alternatives being tested in labs. Lithium sulfur looks to me to show the best promise for the next notch down the price curve, but I'll be happy to be wrong if another innovation beats it out.
 

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Cheaper batteries are coming. Recent price drops from Tesla and others are still almost perfectly tracking the 6.5 year cycle of exponential decline, ......
Which price drop was that ?
Do they list EV battery prices ?
..the last price change (feb '18) for batteries from Tesla (Powerwall) was UP 7%
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-quietly-raised-the-price-of-the-powerwall#gs.vI2g94Q
Tesla now charges more for its powerwall than it did back when the product launched in October 2016.

The company's website now lists the starting price for the 7-kilowatt/13.5-kilowatt-hour storage system as $5,900 — a $400 increase from the original list price of $5,500. The actual price to a customer will be higher still, because it includes supporting hardware, installation and other fees.
 

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Which price drop was that ?
Do they list EV battery prices ?

The 65 year year trend I've been telling you all about for the past 6 years I've been a member of this forum. Read, "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil (tech advisor to 4 Presidents) for an explanation of how technology advances. Basically, each new idea evolves at an exponential rate until it hits the laws of physics (e.g. piston engine can't get much more efficient unless we invent higher temperature materials); or the cost / availability of raw materials and labor. Batteries and solar have not yet approached any of those limits. In this case I use the word "battery" to include any device which stores and releases electrical energy - so there can be many "leaps" and "plateaus" over time as new solutions are released, they go through a cycle of improving manufacturing capabilities, and are eventually supplanted by a superior solution.



There is no "they" - you have to do the research yourself. It takes a few hours using Google and a little competence with Excel. You have to research year over year what the specifications were for the types of battery available at that time; capacity; number of expected charge / discharge cycles; and typical purchase price in that year. Every year there is a price leader when considered as a grid storage choice; another when considered for use for EVs - but overall the trend tracks. Lead acid had only about 300-400 charge cycles. NiCad was better, and the cost per Kwh stored and released reflected that. LiIon upped the ante. With each chemistry change there was also a period of time in which manufacturing became more efficient, so although there was some saw-toothing in the curve overall it is clearly tracking to an exponential curve (cost per Kwh over the life of the battery drops by half about every 6.5 years). never a perfect line of course, but if you plot it year by year even a 6th grader can see it tracks.


Note that some advances are subtle - an increase in the number of expected charge cycles being most notable for the same basic chemistry.



No technology has been as good as Moore's Law (a roughly 18 month periodicity to double the computing power per dollar). Solar panels have tracked at about 3.5 years to drop in price by half when you consider capacity, cost, expected lifetime.


I'm liking Lithium Sulfur for the next saw-tooth. It will slot into existing manufacturing (i.e. the Gigafactory and others).
 

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Good question - I recall commenting that Phoenix Motor Cars has been providing electric trucks for fleet operators for several years now but not to the public.


Another company had promoted a hybrid pickup truck for utility companies such that the truck was also a site power generator. Great idea, don't know if anyone ever produced it.
 

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Very wordy reply PP which is all just theory.
Im more interested in the real world situation.
IE lead batteries cost more now (real cost,..Mars bar/McDonalds equivalent).. Than they did 40 years ago .
Likewise lipo cost is the same if not more than when i first bought 10-12 yrs ago ..real dollars, retail prices.
But , you said Teslas recent price reduction ?
and i asked which recent Tesla price reduction ?..they infact recently increased.
Note the referenced article which states that ....
...."Teslas batteries cost more today than when they were introduced 2 years ago ."
You have not clarified your statement,...just tried to deflect the discussion with predictions and word litter.
So...which recent Tesla battery price reduction ?.

And yes,...the forum has suffered a major failure with missing posts etc.
 

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Very wordy reply PP which is all just theory.
I'm sorry, are you suggesting that the technological progression for batteries is somehow different from every other technology in history? Or that 65 years of data showing they are following that same pattern are somehow irrelevant?

If you have another theory about how technology progresses, or have any evidence whatsoever that progress in batteries is about to break the historical pattern just a few years before they reach the point of being truly economical, I would honestly like to know.

Im more interested in the real world situation.
IE lead batteries cost more now (real cost,..Mars bar/McDonalds equivalent).. Than they did 40 years ago.
Right - that particular type of "battery" reached its technological limit based on physics (Pb acid simply won't hold a lot more energy than it already does) and the cost of materials.


Since then there have been two successful major chemistry innovations and multiple minor tweaks breathing new life into "batteries." For the major improvements first was NiCad, then Lithium Ion.
Likewise lipo cost is the same if not more than when i first bought 10-12 yrs ago ..real dollars, retail prices.
That is simply false. Todays batteries have tweaked the chemistry of LiIon (such as LiFePo) and provide many more charge cycles than the earlier versions - providing lower cost per Kwh stored and released over its lifetime when properly used.

But , you said Teslas recent price reduction?
Right - Tesla tweaked their batteries in a new form factor, providing a boost in energy density / total energy for about the same price.

and i asked which recent Tesla price reduction ?..they infact recently increased.
Manufacturers are notoriously closed mouth about actual costs, but there have been multiple articles indicating that costs were dropping towards $100/Kwh and that battery life has during that same period increased. Again - do NOT focus on a single manufacturer's product. Pricing strategies distort the trends. Tesla can charge more for their batteries because people are driving their cars. I am focused on the bigger picture of possible grid storage as well as EV battery trends.

Note the referenced article which states that ....
...."Teslas batteries cost more today than when they were introduced 2 years ago ."
Purchase price is not indicative of cost, and varies considerably more than cost (responding to market forces). Perhaps you are confusing the two? In any event, price changes are offset by charge cycle improvements, and looking at pricing changes for a specific product are again irrelevant especially over the short term. I will say it again - the exponential price decline is across the industry of "batteries." For example, you could put together a pack of A123 cells and, due to the greater number of lifetime charge cycles, the lifetime value would be better than a Tesla pack when chosen for the right purpose. Also, the trend may be stair-stepped over the short term.
 

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I'm sorry, are you suggesting that the technological progression for batteries is somehow different from every other technology in history? ....
Yes,..are you suggesting that every technology in history has the same cost reduction over time ?:eek:
I will stick to reality and leave the theorys to you.
Remember the Pb battery example ..?

....Right - that particular type of "battery" reached its technological limit based on physics (Pb acid simply won't hold a lot more energy than it already does) and the cost of materials....
Since then there have been two successful major chemistry innovations and multiple minor tweaks breathing new life into "batteries." For the major improvements first was NiCad, then Lithium Ion.....
All of which , acording to "theory", should have made the superceeded Pb tech batteries less popular and hence cheaper....But in reality it has not !


....Right - Tesla tweaked their batteries in a new form factor, providing a boost in energy density / total energy for about the same price...
Wrong..Teslas 2170 cell has the sme energy density as their previous 18650
The only indication of price (or manufacturing costs) that we have is the price of their PowerWall and, more realisticly, the commercial Powerpack
And as previously stated, prices for those have increased over the past few years since they were introduced.
The most recent increase, February this year, was reported as being due to the increase of Cobalt prices.
 

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Yes,..are you suggesting that every technology in history has the same cost reduction over time ?:eek:
No, what I DID say was that they followed the same PATTERN (exponential decline until limits reached, but DIFFERENT periodicity). Thus, wagon wheels declined over thousands of years and were eventually replaced by machined wheels with metal bearings.

Again, go read, "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, technology advisor to 4 Presidents and one of thousands of scientists who have all come to the same conclusion.

Remember the Pb battery example ..?
I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that this is simply too complicated for you to grasp. Any ONE technology may reach its limits quickly; a CATEGORY (e.g. "batteries") may continue to improve as newer innovations upset the status quo of "the old way".

All of which , acording to "theory", should have made the superceeded Pb tech batteries less popular and hence cheaper....But in reality it has not !
Incorrect. You are failing to grasp that economics is not a straight line - and that people make purchasing decisions based not only function but "suitability to a purpose" and so price at the checkout line may not be a good indicator of cost to produce. LiIon is now far cheaper than Pb acid for EVs because of several factors including weight and total number of charge cycles. An EV with 10Kwh of Pb acid batteries might see a year or so of use before the batteries needed replacement while the same pack in LiIon would cost more initially but would last many years. Additionally the LiIon pack would have greater range due to lesser weight. However, some people with limited budgets might opt to replace their battery pack with Pb acid because of cheaper purchase price and because they are betting they ONLY need 1 year of service (suitability to intended purpose).

The only indication of price (or manufacturing costs) that we have is the price of their PowerWall and, more realisticly, the commercial Powerpack
That is untrue. First, because those are "premium" products marketed to Yuppies, and so not well representative of cost. Second, because many many investigative articles have been able to put "fences" around the likely low to high cost ranges various manufacturers have been able to achieve.

And as previously stated, prices for those have increased over the past few years since they were introduced.
The most recent increase, February this year, was reported as being due to the increase of Cobalt prices.
And again focusing on a single product from a single manufacturer is irrelevant to overall industry cost to provide a given specification of battery performance. Tesla can command higher prices for their batteries because they are "necessary" (a monopoly) for their cars.


Well, if you can't understand this by now it is pointless to continue. Read the book, or remain ignorant. The financial giants have figured it out; if you want to believe you are smarter than all of them knock yourself out.
 

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You are just muddying the waters with obscure arguments to cover up your previous statement that Tesla had recently reduced their battery prices..
They have not, they have infact increased them.
You made a false statement just to support your "theory"
You stick to your books and theorys, ..
I will stick to the real world of actual prices.
I am not holding my breath for a cheap EV, ICE equivalent , anytime in the next 10 years.
 

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You are just muddying the waters with obscure arguments to cover up your previous statement that Tesla had recently reduced their battery prices..
I don't think that's what I said, although I certainly don't claim to be perfect. What I have consistently said for years here is that costs are declining, and that prices will follow overall. If I accidentally used the word price instead of cost somewhere, I politely recommend you go stuff yourself for quibbling - you know what I meant.

They have not, they have infact increased them.
Ok. You are right. Do you feel better? That doesn't change the industry trend.

You made a false statement just to support your "theory"
Not my theory, and not a theory. Empirical fact noted by scientists around the world. If you choose to believe the world is flat that is your right, but you don't have a right to your own facts.

I will stick to the real world of actual prices.
Yes you will. If you buy a Tesla you may well pay a premium for batteries, just as computer owners have paid a premium for replacement batteries for decades. However, if you are clever and source your own replacement batteries or build your own EV you may get prices reflective of true costs. Thus it ever was.

I am not holding my breath for a cheap EV, ICE equivalent , anytime in the next 10 years.
Even as annoying as you can be, I won't ask you to do that either. Besides, if you did that you wouldn't be around later for me to say "I told you so!" ;)



But it won't be 10 years to price parity/superiority. It will be about 7.
 

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More batteryr price data..
Qtr on Qtr price increases across all formats..

Yep - for one particular type of battery. Short term price variances have less to do with cost than with market demand. When demand rises, prices rise due to scarcity until someone else invests in additional manufacturing capacity. Nobody is investing in current tech battery capacity because they all know something new is about to pop and then might stand to lose their investment.

Meanwhile it only takes one successful breakthrough to continue the stairstep in the continuing exponential decline of cost.


Oh and would you please resize that image? It practically fills my 49" 4k monitor... ;)
 

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Ah didn't know about the EV Toyota 4x4 pickup. I would have guessed that Ford would make the first move here but can't help but assume that most pickup truck owners aren't exactly the demographic to go for EV.
 
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