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Last Friday, I attended the last big day of the ASPO-USA conference here in
Houston. (ASPO: Association for the Study of Peak Oil). A lot of brilliant
people spoke, but the most memorable was T. Boone Pickens. You may not like
the right-wing politics of this famous oil man, but he obviously knows
energy markets as well as anyone alive today.

A woman in the audience shouted out: "What about Peak Oil?"

"Well, I've got a short answer for you," he said. "We've peaked. We're
running out. For various technical reasons, world production will never be
more than 85 million barrels a day. Period. The problem is that world demand
is already at 88 million barrels a day and growing...

There's only one thing that can kill that demand, and that's higher

I don't do wildcatting anymore. New fields are too hard to find, and what
you do discover is too small.

The major oil companies are buying back their own stock, and that's a signal
to the market that they cannot find enough new reserves to replace their
exhausted properties."

So, the next time someone gives you a thumbs-down on your EV, and tells you
that it's a big waste of time because we've got plenty of oil, invite him to
call his futures broker and short crude. Guys like Boone Pickens will be
happy to buy his contract.

When it comes time to close out that position, we'll see who winds up with
more money in the bank: the Peak Oil Doubter.. or the people who really know
what time it is.


Steve Kobb
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