DIY Electric Car Forums banner

1 - 2 of 2 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
70 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Douglas A. Stansfield" wrote:

> Have fun driving in your gas car Marc. You are delusional to think
> we can find enough oil in this country to supply our current demand.

Doug, I'm really sorry, but I drive a diesel and have for twenty years.
And I'm not making this up. When I say "find" I don't mean find in the
ground, I mean find already on the market. It is a simple, plain fact
that there is enough oil available right now to meet domestic demand
from domestic sources. You don't have to believe it, but it is so
nonetheless. And it's not the first time the question has come up.
During the oil embargo of 1974, the Midwest had no lines at the gas
station, no shortages and no price spikes. The country's news media were
concentrated on the two coasts, so all that was needed to maintain an
atmosphere of crisis was to generate gas lines in LA and New York, which
was easily done by juggling refinery allocations. There was plenty of
domestic oil, and if the embargo had stretched on it would in due course
have been "found."

>Cheap oil is becoming increasingly hard to find. Deep water, Oil
> shale, etc. You have really demonstrated that you don't know the
> facts about our current world oil demand.

Again, you are diving off into the irrelevant and the tendentious. The
facts I offered are current market facts, easily verified. You are
talking about possible future trends, which may or may not be true and
are easily falsified. History has shown that projections of future oil
supply have ALWAYS been wrong. In the nineteen teens, it was known for
certain that petroleum would be exhausted within ten years. Ever since
then, when it has been to the oil companies' advantage to project low
supplies, supplies have been found to be dangerously low. When they
needed to reassure the public, supplies were found for the purpose.

>According to the article, World Wide Peak oil was hit back in 2006!!!
>Funny, no mention of that fact in the US news article.

Possibly true, but definitely irrelevant to the article we are
discussing. Peak Oil only means the point at which the maximum all-time
petroleum production rate is achieved. If it has occurred (and there's
really no way to know - for all you or I know there could be an even
higher peak in 2016) it will affect the vehicle market in the (possibly
far distant) future. The US News article is discussing the immediate
market prospects of vehicles entering the market now. Peak Oil has
nothing to do with that, because it is not having any effect on consumer
buying decisions now, and won't for years, if ever.

Tying the marketing of electrics to a non-existent crisis is a really
bad idea now, just as it was in the Seventies. Concentrate on their real
virtues and they might just have a shot at success, at last.

Regards,
Marc

P.S. I just worked it out for fun. Motor fuel that cost $0.10/gallon in
1910, when the dollar was still defined as 1/30 of an ounce of fine
gold, was equivalent in cost to $33.00/gallon in our debased paper
currency (gold at $1000/oz). We're still a long way from paying that much.
--
Archivale catalog: http://www.archivale.com/catalog
Ducted fans: http://massflow.archivale.com/
Polymath weblog: http://www.archivale.com/weblog
Translation services (BeWords): http://www.bewords.com/Marc-dePiolenc
Translation services (ProZ): http://www.proz.com/profile/639380
Translation services (translatorscafe):
http://www.translatorscafe.com/cafe/profile/default.asp?LID=130919&ForOthers=true#Profile_Start

_______________________________________________
| REPLYING: address your message to [email protected] only.
| Multiple-address or CCed messages may be rejected.
| UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
| OTHER HELP: http://evdl.org/help/
| OPTIONS: http://lists.sjsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/ev
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
70 Posts
Discussion Starter · #2 ·
"P.S. I just worked it out for fun. Motor fuel that cost $0.10/gallon in
1910, when the dollar was still defined as 1/30 of an ounce of fine
gold, was equivalent in cost to $33.00/gallon in our debased paper
currency (gold at $1000/oz). We're still a long way from paying that much."

There where 92 million people in the US and domestic production was as easy
as sticking a spike in the ground.
How on earth is this relevant to today, when nobody's currency is pegged to
gold and oil is traded on a
global market ?

It is pretty pointless pinning a date on peak oil, but somewhere between
2005-2015 is an accepted time period.
Even by the US military. Everyone interested in peak oil should *ignore*
opinion pieces.
Even the EIA has a sketchy track record, their forecasts are always off, and
revised endlessly.

These 2 reports are a good read:
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf (energy
section begins page 24 I believe)
&
http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/Lloyds/Reports/360%20Energy%20Security/7238_L=
loyds_360_Energy_Pages.pdf

The military knows downsizing is going to occur, investors and speculators
know also, people are lining up to make a killing.
Spikes and troughs for the next few years, then the decline that's been
happening for the past decade will be felt.

The fact that oil is going to peak is all I need as motivation, I don't care
whether its tomorrow or 30 years from now.
And quite honestly I would love to know where these domestic on land oil
reserves are in the US, are we talking about
kerrogen ? easily classed away from the definition of "easy oil" for sure.
Anyone that expects prices to stay reasonable
in a world of only Canadian shale and domestic resources is living in a
fantasy. (Mexican imports peaked in 2004)

Further to the fact oil is going to get more expensive, is where a lot of it
comes from, and IS going to come from.
As we wave bye bye to Gwar and Saudi production (as domestic usage
increases) --
Iraq is expected to produce 12mbpd by 2016. Does anyone still seriously
think that war was a coincidence ?
Saddam traded oil exclusively in Euros in 2002, cutting a nice supply of
petrodollars. It is and I quote:

=93What people will usually say is that the low-hanging fruit is gone, exc=
ept
for in Iraq. Iraq is the last place where there=92s a country with massive
untapped and even undiscovered oil and gas reserves. Iraq is a place for the
oil sector right now, and everything else kind of pales in comparison.=94 =
=96
Ben Lando
Iraq Bureau chief for http://www.iraqoilreport.com/

Of course that could be industry fluff. But it would be a heck of a
coincidence that we raped that country back to the stone age for nothing
wouldn't it ?
I don't think I could stand it if one day in the future Iraq becomes one of
our biggest oil suppliers. Could you?

If anyone wants to discuss peak oil please email me off list, I hope this to
be the last post on this thread.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.sjsu.edu/mailman/private/ev/attachments/20101122/47c811ad=
/attachment.html =

_______________________________________________
| REPLYING: address your message to [email protected] only.
| Multiple-address or CCed messages may be rejected.
| UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
| OTHER HELP: http://evdl.org/help/
| OPTIONS: http://lists.sjsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/ev
 
1 - 2 of 2 Posts
Top