Douglas A. Stansfield" wrote:
> Have fun driving in your gas car Marc. You are delusional to think
> we can find enough oil in this country to supply our current demand.
Doug, I'm really sorry, but I drive a diesel and have for twenty years.
And I'm not making this up. When I say "find" I don't mean find in the
ground, I mean find already on the market. It is a simple, plain fact
that there is enough oil available right now to meet domestic demand
from domestic sources. You don't have to believe it, but it is so
nonetheless. And it's not the first time the question has come up.
During the oil embargo of 1974, the Midwest had no lines at the gas
station, no shortages and no price spikes. The country's news media were
concentrated on the two coasts, so all that was needed to maintain an
atmosphere of crisis was to generate gas lines in LA and New York, which
was easily done by juggling refinery allocations. There was plenty of
domestic oil, and if the embargo had stretched on it would in due course
have been "found."
>Cheap oil is becoming increasingly hard to find. Deep water, Oil
> shale, etc. You have really demonstrated that you don't know the
> facts about our current world oil demand.
Again, you are diving off into the irrelevant and the tendentious. The
facts I offered are current market facts, easily verified. You are
talking about possible future trends, which may or may not be true and
are easily falsified. History has shown that projections of future oil
supply have ALWAYS been wrong. In the nineteen teens, it was known for
certain that petroleum would be exhausted within ten years. Ever since
then, when it has been to the oil companies' advantage to project low
supplies, supplies have been found to be dangerously low. When they
needed to reassure the public, supplies were found for the purpose.
>According to the article, World Wide Peak oil was hit back in 2006!!!
>Funny, no mention of that fact in the US news article.
Possibly true, but definitely irrelevant to the article we are
discussing. Peak Oil only means the point at which the maximum all-time
petroleum production rate is achieved. If it has occurred (and there's
really no way to know - for all you or I know there could be an even
higher peak in 2016) it will affect the vehicle market in the (possibly
far distant) future. The US News article is discussing the immediate
market prospects of vehicles entering the market now. Peak Oil has
nothing to do with that, because it is not having any effect on consumer
buying decisions now, and won't for years, if ever.
Tying the marketing of electrics to a non-existent crisis is a really
bad idea now, just as it was in the Seventies. Concentrate on their real
virtues and they might just have a shot at success, at last.
P.S. I just worked it out for fun. Motor fuel that cost $0.10/gallon in
1910, when the dollar was still defined as 1/30 of an ounce of fine
gold, was equivalent in cost to $33.00/gallon in our debased paper
currency (gold at $1000/oz). We're still a long way from paying that much.
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