[EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

I would hope that all would be but sincerely doubt that all will be EVs by
then. Technology could advance and bury the ICE but at the moment, the
range issue hurts EVs and the amount of energy held in gasoline is tough to
beat today. Cost is also a factor. Since when the Oil price when up during
2006 to 2008 commodity pricing of other materials rose as well. The markets
pushed up the price of lead during that period of time. Can the same thing
happen again....definitely. I'm hoping for the best however....


Sincerely;

Douglas A. Stansfield
President
www.TransAtlanticElectricConversions.com
973-875-6276 (office)
973-670-9208 (cell)
973-440-1619 (fax)

ELECTRIC CAR PRODUCERS






-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf
Of Eric
Sent: Monday, September 27, 2010 1:53 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

Maybe some of you guys could answer with your opinions.

Do you think in 10 years all passenger cars will be EVs or converted to
electric power?

Regards,
Eric

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Let the pessimist take the first stab

Its likely that this could be the case, the period between 2013 and 2015
will see people really start to realize (hopefully)
that easy oil really is on the way out.
How late people jump on EVs will be partly due to this, and partly due to
how quickly OEMs and conversion company's can crank them out.

Then there is the factor of how loud can awareness groups continue to
scream. The Post Carbon Institute is doing a good job in addition to many
other think tanks and youtube channels a like but the message really isn't
reaching the man in the street, his attention is being held by a multitude
of other issues.

I think we will see perhaps a 40-50% increase in the number of EVs we see,
but its going to be accompanied by a 65-75% increase in the number of small
ICE cars we see also, and users of public transportation.
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No.

Change is slow and it's difficult to change the status quo.

It'd be great if most new vehicles were EV in ten years. That should be
obtainable. But do you think that everyone with new vehicles now will have
junked them in 10 years? I know of many people driving 1950's cars! It would
take a huge gasoline shortage to get all of those people to change to EV. I
don't see that happening. The US is full of oil and the only reason we
haven't tapped it more fully is that it's expensive and we don't feel like
it. The going wisdom is to drain other people's oil first so that you end up
with the old source of it once everyone else dries up. Bear in mind that the
US gets more oil from the US than it does from any other single country. I
believe it's like 35% of our oil that comes from the US. More than any other
source. So I think that we'll see gasoline being available for quite some
time. This is especially true as more and more people switch to EVs. The
rest of the still ICE vehicles will then have more gasoline to go around.
This will likely slowly continue until it's no longer profitable to offer
gasoline. My prediction is that it'll take more than 50 years to get rid of
gasoline powered cars.

Eric <[email protected]> wrote:

> Maybe some of you guys could answer with your opinions.
>
> Do you think in 10 years all passenger cars will be EVs or converted to
> electric power?
>
> Regards,
> Eric
>
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Click to expand...

One of the best things the US Government could do would be to mandate
that all NEW vehicles be able to at least drive a few (5? 10?) miles on
plug-in power (Grid Enabled Vehicles) shutting the ICE down when it's
not moving.

With those relatively smaller packs it also might be able to be done on
already existing (or more easily/cheaply installed) 120/15A which would
allow for frequent opportunity charging at every stop in town (eeking
out another 5-10 miles before switching back to gas). Opportunity
charging combined with the knowledge of how many miles American's DON'T
drive daily would cut gasoline usage VERY significantly.

But you've still got a very large installed ICE base, which leads to
this little bit of insight: as an EV owner and proponent, the closing
argument of Gary Lauder's Ted talk
(http://www.ted.com/talks/gary_lauder_s_new_traffic_sign_take_turns.html
) hit home very hard with me: You will make more of impact in
Environment (CO2/Smog) and National Security (foreign oil imports) by
working to change the infrastructure than you will by changing your
personal vehicle. You change to a bicycle, EV or biofuel and you solve
YOUR MPGe problem. However if instead (or in conjunction) you work for
the elimination of stop signs for yield signs and stop lights for modern
designed roundabouts and you increases EVERYONES MPGe.

I'm still a big fan and promoter of electric vehicles, but once you
realize the impact that an all-way stop or a stoplight has on the MPG of
an ICE, you'll start to want to Cool-Hand-Luke 'em as I do... if you
ever hear of a guy thrown in the hole for cutting down stopsigns and
stoplights in the mid-west, it's a good bet it's me...

Oh yes, and those things they have out in Boston and that big circle in
London *aren't* modern, designed roundabouts. Those are rotaries or
traffic circles, and they're scary.

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Not a chance. The all-gas hybrids have been out for 13 years and they're
still a tiny minority of the vehicles on the road. EV is a much more
disruptive technology. EVs will remain specialty vehicles for decades yet.

There's also the distinct possibility that some unforeseen (by us) event
will drive liquid fuel prices radically lower, at least temporarily (5-15
years). This could easily force a precipitous decline in consumer interest
in EVs, similar to the one we saw in the late 1980s.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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--------------------------------------------------
From: "EVDL Administrator" <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, September 27, 2010 10:23 PM
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

> Not a chance.

I agree. If for no other reason than it is like asking in 1900 "No horses in
10 years?" even transportation by horse is still around.

> EVs will remain specialty vehicles for decades yet.

I think that depends on several very specific definition. I believe electric
driven vehicles will become increasingly common, and within 20 years it will
start becoming more difficult to find a non-specialty vehicle that isn't
electric-driven. As for strictly BEVs I do agree, those will remain mostly
specialty vehicles.

> There's also the distinct possibility that some unforeseen (by us) event
> will drive liquid fuel prices radically lower

Here's where I show my hand as a capitalist. I believe it is entirely
foreseeable. Already we have technologies like biogas, and Green Power
claims to be able to produce Naphtha (gasoline precursor) from waste matter,
algal biodiesel, etc, these will necessarily cap the price of gaoline. As
gas prices rise we will of course see increased interest in non-petroleum
fuels, this will reduce demand for petroleum, price will necessarily have to
drop. So that is a fairly easy prediction to make, and it breaks down
completely once the product becomes a specialty product and price will rise
again.

BEVs may never be the actual dominant technology, but electric-driven
vehicles will have an increasing position in the market, eventually reaching
a dominant position. I just don't think 10 years is a long enough time for
much of this to happen.

That is just in terms of sales. It is fairly certain that not all gasoline
vehicles will be converted, I'm certain there would be plenty of tensions
around anyone desiring to convert something like the Bugatti 57S Atlantic,
so there will always be at least some gasoline vehicles around, just like
there will always be horses.
Joe

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When I think about the typical neighborhood in a Dutch city
then it is a block of about 4-6 houses "under one roof" and
only the end houses are likely to have a carport or garage,
all the houses in between have curbside parking on the street
with a (mandatory) sidewalk between their yard and the curb...
Since the houses are typically just wide enough to allow a single
car to park in front of each house, there is usually some additional
parking either adjacent (perpedicular) to the street or between
some of the blocks, which means the car is up to 100 meter from
your house.
Now *that* is actually a good place to put some EV charging in, as
frequently one of the parking spots may already be reserved for
disabled parking, so why not have one EV parking spot?
But to plug your car in without such facility is difficult if
you are not living in the corner house, because you must either
string a cord out an upstairs window to a light post near the curb
to clear the sidewalk and from there drop down to your vehicle, or
sneak it out the back door and yard via the common path behind the
houses to the parking between the blocks.
In most cases you are running a cord over common/city property
and this could lead to complaints, hopefully not to accidents
(pedestrians tripping over cords).
It won't be easy to place an outlet near the curb, as the mandatory
sidewalk is owned and maintained by the city - I guess your best bet
would be to install a weatherproof outlet on the lightposts, but I
am not very hopeful...
Color me sceptical.
BTW, here in India things are "different" as even medium voltage
transformers, distribution cables and fuses and all kinds of
power electrical stuff is sitting on sidewalks within touching
reach, sometimes with wires dangling out and in most cases with
the doors missing or hanging open... Kids just learn *not* to
mess with that stuff and occasionally a report in the newspaper
about someone electrocuted due to an accident while making a
connection for stealing electricity....
There is nobody frowning when a party is going on with some
wires strung across the floor, the bare ends pushed into a
socket on one side of the room and the two single-isolated
conductors taped together every meter, running to some equipment
at the other end of the room where it is wound around the pins of
the plug of a power strip and taped to stay and insulate, all the
while party guests manoevring over and around the wires while
walking around through the room.
Or my favorite: having chairs with steel rods folded in a square
as legs on each side, so a 1/4 inch dia rod goes from front to
back across the floor on each side of the chair, then place
these chairs on top of the single-insulated conductors with 230V
while it rains and the puddles form around the chairs....
(and no, there is no GFCI in the breaker box...)

But it sure is much easier to charge your EV here, *if* you are
running one. No time or money at the moment, but I am still
planning to take an "autorickshaw" (3-wheeled mini-taxi) and
convert it one day.
Even a souped-up Golfcart setup will do well, as the default
1-cylinder engine delivers only some 4hp in these vehicles.
They are unsafe at speeds above 40-50 km/h anyway since they
have a single front wheel. Lots of batteries between the rear
wheels will be an advantage!

Regards,

Cor van de Water
Director HW & Systems Architecture Group
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 383 7626 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Tel: +91 (040)23117400 x203 XoIP: +31877841130

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of EVDL Administrator
Sent: Tuesday, September 28, 2010 8:04 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

On 28 Sep 2010 at 15:04, Evan Tuer wrote:

> In Europe, diesel passenger cars have well over 50% market share now.

Curiously, though, I've read several people's opinions that EVs will
have an even tougher time getting established in Europe than in the US,
despite their generally greater acceptance of small and less powerful
(ICE) vehicles. The reason given is that Europeans are more apt to park
on the street and less likely to have garages, so charging at home is
more of a problem for them.

Of course that doesn't count the milk floats. ;-)

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Click to expand...

Hi Zeke,

Not sure where "here" is, but in The Netherlands
the responsibility to keep the sidewalk clean
also lies with the home owner adjacent to each
section of sidewalk.
Not sure if that obligation would change anything
wrt the curbside plug.

If the cord comes from your window then of course
it is metered in your home, but for the curbside
plug (or the lightpost plug) it is more likely
that the city would be metering, so then you run
into issues as "who is going to pay for the
free electricity"...

Cor van de Water
Director HW & Systems Architecture Group
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 383 7626 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Tel: +91 (040)23117400 x203 XoIP: +31877841130

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of Zeke Yewdall
Sent: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 7:37 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

On Tue, Sep 28, 2010 at 12:40 PM, Cor van de Water

<[email protected]>wrote:

>
> It won't be easy to place an outlet near the curb, as the mandatory
> sidewalk is owned and maintained by the city - I guess your best bet
> would be to install a weatherproof outlet on the lightposts, but I am
> not very hopeful...
>
> here, the sidewalks are mostly owned by the city, and are public use,
> but
the homeowner behind each one is responsible for keeping the sidewalks
shoveled -- so having them owned by the city but requiring outlets out
by them would not be completely out of this shared responsibility model.
Though.... is that outlet metered from the home, or the city....

Z
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Click to expand...

Making the vehicle funstainabiliy-sized you can just take the battery
pack out of the vehicle, sling it over your shoulder(s) like a briefcase
and carry it up 3 or 4 flights of stairs and plug it into any grounded
household outlet. Becomes even more possible with polymer battery
packs. Is that a briefcase or is it a "gas tank".

Size matters. Don't believe it if someone tells you otherwise (they're
just being polite). Smaller is better: REDUCE reuse recycle.

Oh, and government (in the US) really isn't worried about who will pay
for the free electricity -- get a business to sponsor putting up a solar
panel or two and bob's your uncle. What the government is REALLY
worried about is how to figure out fuel TAXES, specifically, ROAD TAXES
on electricity. They're experiencing the effects of their coffers
depleting when we started driving less as fuel costs in the US
skyrocketed (apologies to the non-US folks) and people switched to more
efficient vehicles. The road tax system is dependant on guzzling gas,
just as you get price breaks when you use MORE electricity.

And again, if your vehicle is funstainably-sized (lightweight), you have
a built-in argument against road taxes (at least for road repair): My
vehicle doesn't do any damage to the roads when compared to the standard
1.5-2 ton ICE car, let alone the bus/semi trucks... it's closer to a
bicycle than a car. Do you charge bicycles road taxes?

[email protected]

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of Cor van de Water
Sent: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 2:05 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

Hi Zeke,

Not sure where "here" is, but in The Netherlands
the responsibility to keep the sidewalk clean
also lies with the home owner adjacent to each
section of sidewalk.
Not sure if that obligation would change anything
wrt the curbside plug.

If the cord comes from your window then of course
it is metered in your home, but for the curbside
plug (or the lightpost plug) it is more likely
that the city would be metering, so then you run
into issues as "who is going to pay for the
free electricity"...

Cor van de Water
Director HW & Systems Architecture Group
Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com
Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com
Skype: cor_van_de_water IM: [email protected]
Tel: +1 408 383 7626 VoIP: +31 20 3987567 FWD# 25925
Tel: +91 (040)23117400 x203 XoIP: +31877841130

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of Zeke Yewdall
Sent: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 7:37 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

On Tue, Sep 28, 2010 at 12:40 PM, Cor van de Water

<[email protected]>wrote:

>
> It won't be easy to place an outlet near the curb, as the mandatory
> sidewalk is owned and maintained by the city - I guess your best bet
> would be to install a weatherproof outlet on the lightposts, but I am
> not very hopeful...
>
> here, the sidewalks are mostly owned by the city, and are public use,
> but
the homeowner behind each one is responsible for keeping the sidewalks
shoveled -- so having them owned by the city but requiring outlets out
by them would not be completely out of this shared responsibility model.
Though.... is that outlet metered from the home, or the city....

Z
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Click to expand...

Don't forget anybody at most public buildings can plug into any outlet
to charge their laptop, cellphone... in total they use far more
electricity than the scant EV's in existence, and WHEN it actually makes
a dent, then it will be a glorious problem to have because that will
mean it will actually make sense to install $$$ charging stations that
can bill for minute amounts of electricity...

...of course you can bet there'll be taxes and administrative fees for
that electricity from those 'special' charging stations ;-)

[email protected]

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of Zeke Yewdall
Sent: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 2:20 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No ICE in 10 Years?

On Wed, Sep 29, 2010 at 1:04 PM, Cor van de Water <[email protected]>

wrote:

> "who is going to pay for the
> free electricity"...
>

Yes... that is the issue....... but the city already provides (using
various
tax dollars) lots of other "free" services. Plowing streets, lighting
streets, wifi, trash cans on every corner, etc. Electricity at curbside
parking areas is not currently something that people expect to get as
part
of their tax dollars, but it could be...

Z
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Click to expand...