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The Markets are subject to fluctuations.
You could get flucted. :D

Roy
 

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Any of you play the Markets? Any ideas which way this thing is headed?:) Just curious and though I might ask... :)
I do play a bit, learned a lot in 87 and 2001.

You do need a bit of a crystal ball, but it is not hard to find. First thing you need to realize is the cycles of boom, bust, and timing. Or in otherwords bull and bear markets. Simple strategy is buy in Bear markets, and sell in Bull markets, or buy low and sell high.

Last cycle was easy to see from 2002 to the end of 2008. I seen it coming like a lot of people and we bought a lot of stocks after the crash in 2001 to 2003. In mid to late 2008 we sold. Waited to march 2009 bought a bunch, now selling like crazy. The recession we just experienced is not over, we just got a very short bounce. The real hit is upon us. For the past couple of months I have been selling stocks, and buying gold getting ready for huge inflation, and a real depression.

Hopefully our executive office will call a truce on biz and pull their head out of their A$$, but I have no confidence they will do so. Obama seems He!! Bent on ruining the USA economy. Safest place right now is in cash and commodities like gold or anything not based on US dollar and wait things out.
 

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So after 8 years of Bush making a mess of things Obama gets handed a giant turd and you blame him for our current situation? That makes sense :rolleyes:
In any case, I too sold off much of my holdings from 07-08 but held off buying anything until recently, and only a few speculative plays this month. Obviously I've missed out on some quick games but I'm still not sure where were headed so using caution.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
I do play a bit, learned a lot in 87 and 2001.

You do need a bit of a crystal ball, but it is not hard to find. First thing you need to realize is the cycles of boom, bust, and timing. Or in otherwords bull and bear markets. Simple strategy is buy in Bear markets, and sell in Bull markets, or buy low and sell high.

Last cycle was easy to see from 2002 to the end of 2008. I seen it coming like a lot of people and we bought a lot of stocks after the crash in 2001 to 2003. In mid to late 2008 we sold. Waited to march 2009 bought a bunch, now selling like crazy. The recession we just experienced is not over, we just got a very short bounce. The real hit is upon us. For the past couple of months I have been selling stocks, and buying gold getting ready for huge inflation, and a real depression.

Hopefully our executive office will call a truce on biz and pull their head out of their A$$, but I have no confidence they will do so. Obama seems He!! Bent on ruining the USA economy. Safest place right now is in cash and commodities like gold or anything not based on US dollar and wait things out.
yeah I here alot of peopl saying it is going to take another dive...But to me there are just too many people saying this! When you see people go one way you always go the other...Right Now I am playing the bear with a few puts on the SPY and Buying RSW...

How far do you think it will drop?
 

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Discussion Starter #6
So after 8 years of Bush making a mess of things Obama gets handed a giant turd and you blame him for our current situation? That makes sense :rolleyes:
In any case, I too sold off much of my holdings from 07-08 but held off buying anything until recently, and only a few speculative plays this month. Obviously I've missed out on some quick games but I'm still not sure where were headed so using caution.
I kinda agree with you here. He is not going to get a far shake on this thing. He inhreated the worst economy EVER and is supposed to perform a wonders, not going to happen.
 

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So after 8 years of Bush making a mess of things Obama gets handed a giant turd and you blame him for our current situation? That makes sense :rolleyes:
Yep it makes perfect since. You have to quit blaming the past for your mistakes. Bush gave us the normal 6 to 7 year cycle. Housing is what crashed the market with fraudulent loans made by Dodd and Franks rule over banking. All Obama did is delay the inevitable and deepened the problem with bailouts with printed phoney-money. You said it yourself we got a short POP of 6 months, and now it will crash hard. Obama owns it now.

Example is the auto bailout. I bought Ford who did not take fed money in Feb for 1.86 per share and sold two weeks ago for 8.29. Care to speak for GM, Chrysler and Obama's plan for them.? :eek: All it did is delay the bankruptcy to allow major holders to sell off their shares and get out with something. Now you the taxpayer own the (Obama's) TURD in the punch bowl and all that comes with gov control, like no sales that mean anything.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Yep it makes perfect since. You have to quit blaming the past for your mistakes. Bush gave us the normal 6 to 7 year cycle. Housing is what crashed the market with fraudulent loans made by Dodd and Franks rule over banking. All Obama did is delay the inevitable and deepened the problem with bailouts with printed phoney-money. You said it yourself we got a short POP of 6 months, and now it will crash hard. Obama owns it now.

Example is the auto bailout. I bought Ford who did not take fed money in Feb for 1.86 per share and sold two weeks ago for 8.29. Care to speak for GM, Chrysler and Obama's plan for them.? :eek: All it did is delay the bankruptcy to allow major holders to sell off their shares and get out with something. Now you the taxpayer own the (Obama's) TURD in the punch bowl and all that comes with gov control, like no sales that mean anything.
Kind of hard to call it Obamas mess when he has only been there a year.. Kind of unfair really but that the way it is..I kind of think there will be no crash really. I am of the mind that when everyone is excpecting a crash look out there will be no crash...sort of like everyone is looking for all this inflation when really Look at what the dollar has been doing. Now it the Dollar continues to go up it will cause a down turn in the markets because of deflation...I am not sure Obama is the one to fault here. He and the FED are trying to save this country....
 

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There is a lot of money to made now if you have guts of steel

Oshkosh truck jumped from $4 to $40 in a matter of months and they have been around 80 years!

Read the contrarian investor reports and related, they aren't really scams but don't pay for them, read the teasers, go to gumshoe and have it analysed (or guess yourself) FOREX is where it is at and of coarse invest in anything china wants, last year was Aluminum and Copper this year likely platinum (don't buy the metal buy companies that make it) hint hint.

Lots of risk but lots of potential gain investing SHORT TERM or day trading. Selling short has been a sure thing lately. This is not your grandfathers stockmarket.
 

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Yep it makes perfect since. You have to quit blaming the past for your mistakes. Bush gave us the normal 6 to 7 year cycle. Housing is what crashed the market with fraudulent loans made by Dodd and Franks rule over banking. All Obama did is delay the inevitable and deepened the problem with bailouts with printed phoney-money. You said it yourself we got a short POP of 6 months, and now it will crash hard. Obama owns it now.
You're talking about the bailouts that Bush started, right? Of course there had to be bailouts, we could not have banks failing right and left, ever hear of the Great Depression? You are aware that many banks that received bailout money paid it back, with interest? The housing bubble was only part of the problem. Pouring billions of dollars over seas needlessly on Iraq hurt us quite a bit. You can't turn around what Bush left us in a short time, and quite frankly I'm surprised things aren't actually worse than they are right now. I can't predict which way things will go in the short term, too many variables that could push one way or the other.
 

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Yep it makes perfect since. You have to quit blaming the past for your mistakes. Bush gave us the normal 6 to 7 year cycle. Housing is what crashed the market with fraudulent loans made by Dodd and Franks rule over banking. All Obama did is delay the inevitable and deepened the problem with bailouts with printed phoney-money. You said it yourself we got a short POP of 6 months, and now it will crash hard. Obama owns it now.

You are quite correct about housing causing the crash,,, started during the Clinton era. I think the truth is that there are people out there that were buying houses that should not have. There are reasons that the banks used to use credit scores and wage statements and maximum percentages to qualify for loans,,,, the idea that everyone can afford a house is just a socialist dream. ( notice I said afford, not deserve ) Anytime one owes more than a commodity is worth, trouble is just around the corner,,,, same thing happened in '29 with the market crash. It wasn't the capitol loss that caused the problem,, it was the fact that people could borrow (margin) more than they could pay for and they were upside down then, also.

The only thing I blame Obama for is "business as usual". All this promise of change and it's still politics repeated. I just listened to 1 1/2 hours of more of the same.

I think I'll become a member of the VTBOOO Party. (That's vote the bastards out of office),,, all of them.

In the mean time,,, I'm in the market,,, have been for over 30 years. A great deal of my retirement is sitting there,,, for the long haul. I tend to buy a lot more during the down times but I don't believe anyone can time the markets and when trying one tends to leave a lot of upside on the table.
 

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The only thing I blame Obama for is "business as usual". All this promise of change and it's still politics repeated. I just listened to 1 1/2 hours of more of the same.
That's interesting. I heard a leader directing Congress to make some real, necessary changes, as well as admitting to some mistakes.
I think I'll become a member of the VTBOOO Party. (That's vote the bastards out of office),,, all of them.
A bit simplistic don't you think? Especially since it won't happen.
 

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I've been a Stock Broker for nearly 30 years. I run my own little shop out of a residential office in my home. I left Wall St. many, many years ago.
With the exception of commodities, ( I don't do commodities) I'm required to hold all the same licenses to run this little office that any major brokerage house would have. This is how FINRA and the SEC punish us little guys and how Wall St. discourages Independents such as myself.

That being said and due to the extreme restrictions placed upon brokers from making recommendations in Chat Rooms, Bulletin Boards etc., I'm prohibited from recommending any specific securities here.

But I could share with you all a little home spun investing knowledge I have gleaned over the years:

1. Money doesn't care who owns it.
2. If you just read it in the newspapers.....it's over.
3. Markets anticipate good news. ( see #2 )
4. Market tops are evidenced by extreme speculation.
5. Market bottoms are evidenced by extreme panic.
6. If everyone is buying it or selling it......it's wrong.
7. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean it can't get cheaper.
8. One the biggest mistakes by investors is not having an exit strategy.
9. No tree grows to the sky. (see #8 )
10. A well balanced portfolio of Lottery Tickets is not an investment.

Enjoy the day - Your friend Roy :D
 

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1. Money doesn't care who owns it.
2. If you just read it in the newspapers.....it's over.
3. Markets anticipate good news. ( see #2 )
4. Market tops are evidenced by extreme speculation.
5. Market bottoms are evidenced by extreme panic.
6. If everyone is buying it or selling it......it's wrong.
7. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean it can't get cheaper.
8. One the biggest mistakes by investors is not having an exit strategy.
9. No tree grows to the sky. (see #8 )
10. A well balanced portfolio of Lottery Tickets is not an investment.

Enjoy the day - Your friend Roy :D
Roy that is pretty good wisdom and I have a comment or two

1. Correct money is Amoral like a brick. You can bash someones head with it or build building. Money goes where it is welcomed. Right now money is not welcome in the USA.

2. Correct... Sound fundamentals will tell you where when a stock is going to go up.

8. Again point blank, I use sell stop orders.
 

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You're talking about the bailouts that Bush started, right? Of course there had to be bailouts, we could not have banks failing right and left, ever hear of the Great Depression? You are aware that many banks that received bailout money paid it back, with interest? The housing bubble was only part of the problem.
Bush had no choice as he was a lame duck going out. Yes some banks needed help, but there would not have been the huge crash you are thinking of. AIG and Golden Slacks would have been liquidated.

Housing was the direct primary cause. The loans were highly leveraged and made to those who should have not qualified in the first place. The problem as i see it is not the bailouts itself, it is the amount that is a huge problem. US taxpayers paid 100 cents on the dollar, rather than say 25 to 50 cents. Had that had happened, you would have seen some real reform and free market corrections. Those who would have lost half their investment would have the heads of the brokers and manager impaled. As it is now, no one got hurt, and the same ole practices are still in place today. Only thing that had to be sacrificed is the US ecconomy

As for the money returned by some banks, well gues what the executive office wants to do with it? Give it away rather than pay down debt and strengthen the USD. The real answer to our problems is huge budget cuts and paying down our debt.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
I've been a Stock Broker for nearly 30 years. I run my own little shop out of a residential office in my home. I left Wall St. many, many years ago.
With the exception of commodities, ( I don't do commodities) I'm required to hold all the same licenses to run this little office that any major brokerage house would have. This is how FINRA and the SEC punish us little guys and how Wall St. discourages Independents such as myself.

That being said and due to the extreme restrictions placed upon brokers from making recommendations in Chat Rooms, Bulletin Boards etc., I'm prohibited from recommending any specific securities here.

But I could share with you all a little home spun investing knowledge I have gleaned over the years:

1. Money doesn't care who owns it.
2. If you just read it in the newspapers.....it's over.
3. Markets anticipate good news. ( see #2 )
4. Market tops are evidenced by extreme speculation.
5. Market bottoms are evidenced by extreme panic.
6. If everyone is buying it or selling it......it's wrong.
7. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean it can't get cheaper.
8. One the biggest mistakes by investors is not having an exit strategy.
9. No tree grows to the sky. (see #8 )
10. A well balanced portfolio of Lottery Tickets is not an investment.

Enjoy the day - Your friend Roy :D
Volts, everyone is screaming INFLATION!!! INFLATION!!! And GOLD GOLD GOLD!!!! But I am tending to think it this overdone also..what do you think? Do you think we could indeed be entering another deflationary spiral?
 

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You're talking about the bailouts that Bush started, right? Of course there had to be bailouts, we could not have banks failing right and left, ever hear of the Great Depression? You are aware that many banks that received bailout money paid it back, with interest? The housing bubble was only part of the problem. Pouring billions of dollars over seas needlessly on Iraq hurt us quite a bit. You can't turn around what Bush left us in a short time, and quite frankly I'm surprised things aren't actually worse than they are right now. I can't predict which way things will go in the short term, too many variables that could push one way or the other.
It really gets quite tedious correcting the same Liberal talking points month after month, but it is important to do nonetheless to keep people from being deceived. :p

The Housing Bubble was created by policies put in place under the Clinton administration (I'm sure there are better articles, this was just the first I found when googling "housing bubble" and "Clinton"). These policies were many (to hide the exact "CAUSE") and included Federal Mortgage guarantees; Fanny and Freddie (their very existence, which is not Constitutional); easy credit and low down payments to people with questionable ability to repay. All of this was done under the lie that "Housing prices always go up, so it's a safe bet!" Until the credit system was turned into yet another government Ponzi scheme, that statement was true (note the upturn IMMEDIATELY following passage of these laws and policies). However, the REASON it was true was because a) the amount of human energy needed to build a house remained fairly stable - declining slowly over the years with no other result than that average home square footage went up, and b) standards for credit were fairly constant, and those who earned credit to buy a home usually repaid.

The law of supply and demand made it impossible for any result to occur rather than the steep increase in home prices shown on the previous chart and caused by the glut of additional capital dumped on the market - just as it also made it inevitable that it would all collapse once the foreclosures started (creating a glut of homes on the market). The banks and financial groups all knew this, and invented Loan Bundling as a way to turn toxic assets into profits (again, this was made legal under Clinton). With the knowing collaboration of Regulators who provided "government approved" AAA and BBB ratings to these soon-to-be-worthless pieces of paper, traders (and cooperating politicians) reaped billions in profits before the bust.

To be fair, the Clinton policies are merely the latest political Ponzi scheme involving "affordable housing" inflicted on the public over 5,000 years of recorded history, under every form of government, and in every conceivable country. For an excellent book on why "affordable housing" political action is ALWAYS a lie and ALWAYS fails, read, "Basic Economics (3rd Edition): A Common Sense Guide to the Economy" by Thomas Sowell. Better yet, read The Housing Boom and Bust: Revised Edition also by Sowell (just saw this and ordered a copy!).

The Bank Bailout was Washington trying to cover its tracks while implementing the biggest government fraud in history. Supported by Liberals who pushed for the Clinton fraud and Republicans who accepted campaign donations and "other support" from banking officials who cashed in on the first fraud, they purposely waited until Solomon Brothers and others collapsed to "create the necessary crisis to allow them to act." The banks referred to who have repaid their loans? Almost every one of them were FORCED to take the government money. The truly failing banks will not likely repay their loans for years, if ever, because they still have such a load of toxic debt that they may yet collapse when the next round of foreclosures hits.

The War on Terror had zero impact on all of this, unless you wish to recognize that our national debt contributed to all of it. If you do that, then you must also acknowledge that our entire military budget is, and always has been, almost entirely funded by Corporate taxes (allowed before the 16th Amendment) while it is Entitlement Spending (all of which is utterly Un-Constitutional) that is bankrupting our nation. Military spending, as a percent of Gross National Product, is on it's way down to equal Japan's Constitutional limit of 2% of GDP. As a percent of Federal spending, the military (the one and nearly only thing authorized for spending by our Constitution) is down to less than 20% of Federal expenditures. That means that even eliminating our military altogether would not even have eliminated our DEFICIT for 2009, let alone our staggering $12 trillion debt (over $100 trillion if you apply internationally accepted accounting principles to our un-funded and illegal obligations for future payments to individuals). Those who continue to blame our debt on the military are either deluded or lying.
 

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Georgia TECH! :D
All healthy economies result in at least a small amount of inflation.
It's human nature to always want a little more for your goods and services.

The US Treasury in concert with The Federal Reserve dramatically increased the Money Supply starting back in 08 to create the Bail Out Funds, Tarp, Stimulus etc. (read printed extra money).
Increasing the Money Supply over time is usually inflationary. There is a typical 12 - 18 month lag on the effect.
Some of that money has already been paid back and there was a small profit on those loans. (Over Simplifying it for this explanation.)

What I have a problem with is determining how much has been paid back and how much remaining. The Treasury is not forthcoming with those numbers. And further what plans does the Treasury have for that money? Leave it in the system? Reduce the deficit with it? Burn it?
I don't know.:confused:

Wanna get totally confused....look at this article:
http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/what-are-m2-and-m3-telling-us/
In the face of all those extra dollars their charts suggests deflation. :confused:
Who really knows.

I will say this - the US Govt. will go to great lengths to prevent another destabilization of our economy. Be it from Asset Bubbles to Massive Deflation or Inflation. They are right now forming rules for Banks on how big is too big and what risk levels should be implemented.
For the most part I disagree with Obama but when it comes to Trading Desks at Banks................SHUT THEM DOWN! I agree.

Roy
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Georgia TECH! :D
All healthy economies result in at least a small amount of inflation.
It's human nature to always want a little more for your goods and services.

The US Treasury in concert with The Federal Reserve dramatically increased the Money Supply starting back in 08 to create the Bail Out Funds, Tarp, Stimulus etc. (read printed extra money).
Increasing the Money Supply over time is usually inflationary. There is a typical 12 - 18 month lag on the effect.
Some of that money has already been paid back and there was a small profit on those loans. (Over Simplifying it for this explanation.)

What I have a problem with is determining how much has been paid back and how much remaining. The Treasury is not forthcoming with those numbers. And further what plans does the Treasury have for that money? Leave it in the system? Reduce the deficit with it? Burn it?
I don't know.:confused:

Wanna get totally confused....look at this article:
http://www.moneyhoneyblog.com/what-are-m2-and-m3-telling-us/
In the face of all those extra dollars their charts suggests deflation. :confused:
Who really knows.

I will say this - the US Govt. will go to great lengths to prevent another destabilization of our economy. Be it from Asset Bubbles to Massive Deflation or Inflation. They are right now forming rules for Banks on how big is too big and what risk levels should be implemented.

Roy
You know I have been trying my BEST to short this market. But I have lost my shirt trying to bet against Osama...wait Obama!:D...Maybe I need to try to quit fighting this administartion and go along with them...I don't know..It sure seems he is turning things around...
 
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