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Meh - three (or four?) years late to the party and yield must be so bad on the 4680 cells that they gave up on using them in the Semi, in favor of the smaller Model 3 cells, so they could ship SOMETHING in CY2022.

I suspect there's a massive cash bleed on this one, given it was priced with the cheaper 4680 dry cells. Other electric semi trucks have been in production for more than a year. Even Nikola beat Elon to market 馃槀
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
That was a serious question. I know Daimler has a "300mi" one, and we don't know where/how it's supposed to recharge. Tesla is trying to provide a complete solution with fixed specs. We will know if they succeeded after PepsiCo and such will log some miles and share their impressions, but who is the real competition in that space ?
 

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We do know how the Daimler is supposed to charge - the PGE CEO was at the ribbon cutting for the charger a year or two ago, lol.

Daimler & Volvo own the semi market. Tesla did some nice sales pitches for them in 2018.

Pepsi is a captive customer, as is Frito Lay and Fedex. Go try to buy a Tesla Semi and they'll likely tell you to pound sand.

Daimler is building to order. On an assembly line in Portland. You can buy one. Volvo is supposedly stall-built. Don't know much about the Kenworth.

When the Koolaide wears off and you come to your senses, you'll realize that Tesla trades payload for range. They're using the same battery tech everybody else is.

Tesla's use of four motors vs two is not going to add 70% to anyone's range, lol. Wake up, boy 馃槀

All of these trucks are for regional distribution. None are long haul trucking market, despite Musk's hype. These are established trucking companies with established customers that they can get data from....not a bunch of car guys building trucks. 300 miles clearly fits the 80/20 rule.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
I don't quite understand your response. You're saying Tesla semi hauls less than the competition ? I understand the part about the ability to order, Tesla received pre-orders with a significant commitment from those companies, so of course they will work day and night to satisfy those first customers before it becomes available to the general public. Nothing wrong with that.

From the presentation it seemed like it wasn't using 4 motors, but just 3.

Why wouldn't they work for long haul if the infrastructure is built out ? Tesla is still the leader in charging infra, if they want to make this happen, I have no reason to doubt them.
 

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The Tesla Semi will "rule" - they will make and sell far more than the competition - AND when Full Self Driving comes in .......

Give it two years and people will have difficulty giving away the competition
 

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The Tesla Semi will "rule" - they will make and sell far more than the competition - AND when Full Self Driving comes in .......

Give it two years and people will have difficulty giving away the competition
That's assuming they can build enough which considering the battery capacity these will have I don't think they'll make a whole bunch for now.

Still a place for Diesels for long-haul, at least here in the States where charging infrastructure in a lot of the country is pretty poor.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Semis have 1MWh batteries, so that's an equivalent of ten higher end S or X models. Not a huge problem given the semi market is significantly smaller and they constantly keep increasing their production capacity. I think they will be able to keep up with the demand.
 

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You missed the part about not having the cheaper 4680 in this reworked product release.

Until Panasonic sorts out Tesla's cell manufacturing mess, either the price will need to go up, or they will bleed cash with each unit shipped. At 2 units per day, just Pepsico and Fedex are backlogged for about six months.

A Class 8 truck is a Class 8 truck. Until you equip it with the weight of batteries to get 500 miles of range. Tesla is the ONLY electric semi where I've seen range quoted as 300-500 miles. With Federal weight limits on the Class, guess how you get that extra 200 miles? No, not Elon Magic.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Battery capacity imposes the absolute maximum range limit, and conditions / terrain / load will impose additional limits on top. They got 500mi out of it on a real route at 82k, but indeed we still don't know what their dry weight is.

Now regarding Federal weight limits, it looks like electrics are allowed extra 2,000lb since recently.
 

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You're saying Tesla semi hauls less than the competition ?
Whatever was intended, it is true that more range means more battery which means less payload in a weight-constrained application. Many applications are constrained by volume or just by the size of a specific payload, rather than by truck GVWR limits or legal limits. Other manufacturers are generally targeting shorter range (like the Tesla "300 mile" option), simply because that's appropriate for the applications for which battery-electric make the most sense.

From the presentation it seemed like it wasn't using 4 motors, but just 3.
The original presentation (a few years ago) showed 4 motors: two per axle, independently driving wheel sets. The motors were to be those of the Model 3, but of course with a different reduction gearing configuration; they were even reportedly using different gearing ratios between axles.
Recent reports talk about 3 motors, which presumably means that one axle is as originally shown, and the other has a single motor plus differential. I haven't even watched today's presentation for confirmation yet.

Of course the number of motors is nearly irrelevant to efficiency and range. Tesla is using axle-mounted motors, which leave as much space as possible between the frame rails for battery; they're not the only ones. Some other manufacturers use traditional axles and frame-mounted motors, which can be as few as one (but Volvo puts two motors on one transmission for sufficient power, and a tandem drive axle configuration could use a motor or motor pair to drive each axle).
 

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The Tesla Semi will "rule"
...
Give it two years and people will have difficulty giving away the competition
Nothing about this truck or Tesla in the automotive market supports this assertion. Yes, they may get a good market share, but they have no technical advantage, and even in the passenger car market none of their competition has trouble selling product.
 

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Why wouldn't they work for long haul if the infrastructure is built out ?
If the battery capacity is not sufficient for a full driving day (and 500 miles is not sufficient in long haul) then fast charging at short breaks (lunch?) is required. That is expensive infrastructure, and even if it is built out it is much more expensive to use than slower charging at corporate facilities.
 

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Semi trucks will lag the consumer automotive market in EV adoption by about a decade IMO. Batteries are just too damn expensive at the moment, which makes electric semis exceptionally expensive upfront.

At $130/kwh for li-ion battery manufacture (current cost) that's $130k in batteries alone. Adding in everything else and you're at likely over $200k in just production costs. How Tesla expects to sell these for less than $200k is absolutely beyond me given the current market. I'm sure they can eat a loss for a handful of units but it's not sustainable long term at all.

I would expect that the base Tesla semi will retail for close to $300k.
 

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You missed the part about not having the cheaper 4680 in this reworked product release.

Until Panasonic sorts out Tesla's cell manufacturing mess, either the price will need to go up, or they will bleed cash with each unit shipped. At 2 units per day, just Pepsico and Fedex are backlogged for about six months.

A Class 8 truck is a Class 8 truck. Until you equip it with the weight of batteries to get 500 miles of range. Tesla is the ONLY electric semi where I've seen range quoted as 300-500 miles. With Federal weight limits on the Class, guess how you get that extra 200 miles? No, not Elon Magic.
How do you get the extra 200 miles

Probably the same way that Tesla cars are better than most of the opposition - by designing it as an EV from the start - not simply replacing a diesel with a motor

Rough numbers
Model X - 350 miles range - battery 600 kg
A big car like the X would have a diesel MPG of about 21 mpg
A Semi is about 7 mpg
So three times the consumption - and twice the range (700 miles) - is six times the battery - 3,600 kg
Lets say that 3.6 ton battery will take you for 500 miles
Lose the engine and gearbox and all of the rest of the junk - 3 tons - replace it with 400 kg of motors
Net gain 1 ton
I'm pretty sure that a redesigned Semi could easily lose a ton!!
But if it didn't then that would be 1 ton of payload lost - as in 2.5% - not a big sacrifice for a massive reduction in fuel costs
 

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Semi trucks will lag the consumer automotive market in EV adoption by about a decade IMO. Batteries are just too damn expensive at the moment, which makes electric semis exceptionally expensive upfront.

At $130/kwh for li-ion battery manufacture (current cost) that's $130k in batteries alone. Adding in everything else and you're at likely over $200k in just production costs. How Tesla expects to sell these for less than $200k is absolutely beyond me given the current market. I'm sure they can eat a loss for a handful of units but it's not sustainable long term at all.

I would expect that the base Tesla semi will retail for close to $300k.
Its more like $100/kWh
And the Semi will have about 600 kWh
Which drops the $130K down to $60K -
Add the same as you thought for "everything else" and we get $130K as total cost
Selling at $200K is a very very decent margin!
 

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How do you get the extra 200 miles

Probably the same way that Tesla cars are better than most of the opposition - by designing it as an EV from the start - not simply replacing a diesel with a motor
No, you get the extra 200 miles, at 2 kWh/mile, with 400 kWh more battery. the Tesla Semi is very conventional: it has an normal heavy truck frame, axles, suspension, brakes, and general cab configuration (the goofy central-seat cab is an unimportant distinction). There's no evidence of "designing it as an EV from the start" about the fundamental design.

Rough numbers
Model X - 350 miles range - battery 600 kg
A big car like the X would have a diesel MPG of about 21 mpg
A Semi is about 7 mpg
So three times the consumption - and twice the range (700 miles) - is six times the battery - 3,600 kg
Good try, but way off. Musk has confirmed that the Semi's consumption when loaded to about 80,000 pounds is about 2 kWh/mile - that's six times Model X consumption, not three times. And there's nothing wrong with that, given the relative sizes of the vehicles and their shapes.

Lets say that 3.6 ton battery will take you for 500 miles
Lose the engine and gearbox and all of the rest of the junk - 3 tons - replace it with 400 kg of motors
Net gain 1 ton
I'm pretty sure that a redesigned Semi could easily lose a ton!!
But if it didn't then that would be 1 ton of payload lost - as in 2.5% - not a big sacrifice for a massive reduction in fuel costs
A realistic battery weight:
500 miles * 2 kWh/mile * 5 kg/kWh = 5,000 kg (5 tonnes)
You can't replace the engine and transmission with just motors - you need the reduction gearboxes for the electric motors as well. A better comparison is to assume that the electric drive units weigh about as much as the diesel truck's transmission, and that diesel-related accessories are comparable to EV-related accessories, so it's a matter of replacing two tonnes of engine and exhaust system with 5 tonnes of battery, for a net 3 tonne increase... plus or minus a substantial margin for error.

I agree that the weight penalty is manageable for many applications... but not all.
 

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Recent reports talk about 3 motors, which presumably means that one axle is as originally shown, and the other has a single motor plus differential. I haven't even watched today's presentation for confirmation yet.
I was going to watch the Tesla video, but it's an hour long. Instead I fast-forwarded through the nine-minute version by CNET, and there at 2:20 is the motor setup. It is as I expected, although the sloppy graphic work doesn't clearly show the differential in the single-motor axle (which they call the "highway drive unit", because the two-motor axle can be disconnected for reduced frictional loss in cruise). The single motor axle won't have control of left-right torque distribution, so it will need a lockable diff (common in conventional trucks) for the worst of winter conditions.

 
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