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Discussion Starter #1
Dear DIY Electric Car Forum Members,

I am a student at Pforzheim University of Applied Sciences, Germany and I would like to invite you to participate in my Global Automobile Survey “The Future of Mobility” with focus on EVs that I am doing as part of my diploma thesis. The survey will take a maximum of 10 minutes. If you wish (it's optional) you can participate in a raffle held for a 30 Euro Amazon voucher that I want to give away as a small thank you for your support.

http://www.davidframpton.co.uk/limesurvey/index.php?sid=36118&lang=en

I very much appreciate it if you could forward this link to your national and international friends and colleagues.

Thank you very, very much in advance for your support!
Mareike


Postscript: Please do not consider this as spam as I am not intending to spam any forum or to offend anyone. I am just trying to contact people beyond the German border due to my global final year project. Thanks a lot for your understanding.
 

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Admirable. Post your thesis when you're done. Good luck.

For the last question, regarding the 10 year outlook, you didn't clarify new vehicles or all vehicles on the road. I'm bullish and was thinking new vehicles, so I said 100% electric. All alternatives to all-electric with advanced energy storage without food or water resources just [EDIT: don't] make sense in comparison.
 

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Admirable. Post your thesis when you're done. Good luck.
Thank you very much for your support and your positive feedback!
I will post a summary of the results after I have handed in my thesis in 4 weeks.

For the last question, regarding the 10 year outlook, you didn't clarify new vehicles or all vehicles on the road. I'm bullish and was thinking new vehicles, so I said 100% electric. All alternatives to all-electric with advanced energy storage without food or water resources just done make sense in comparison.
Sorry, I thought I stated the question clearly by defining "all the cars in the world are equal to 100% of the car market". I mean all vehicles that exist in total, new ones and vehicles on the road. (because car manufacturers won't produce new vehicles if the demand for them doesn't exist).
 

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Thank you very much for your support and your positive feedback!
I will post a summary of the results after I have handed in my thesis in 4 weeks.
I'm seriously interested in the thesis as well. I read plenty since many universities have them online in pdf format. Enjoy learning the thoughts of minds that inherit the responsibilities of the world.

Sorry, I thought I stated the question clearly by defining "all the cars in the world are equal to 100% of the car market". I mean all vehicles that exist in total, new ones and vehicles on the road.
Well, I don't want to skew your data by taking it again.

All New Cars = excellent chance at 100% All Electric. All Cars for any use = slim chance 100% All Electric - more like 40-60% All Electric I'd guess. However, by that time just about everyone should want an all electric car because they finally should have learned how great it is and the technology advances for energy storage should have helped the main issue of range and power output to seal the deal.

I also was a bit bashful to admit that I probably didn't read your entire question or at least I forget if I did or not. I read a lot so I sometimes get into the habit of assuming I know what's there and skimming. I do recall looking it over to see if there was something specific to "new" or "on the road". I think it could use more clarity. Something like "all the cars in the world being produced new, or all the cars in the world in use - new or used" would be helpful. Actually, even that could be better defined by "commuter" or "transportation" or "commercial" cars - seeing as though some vehicles are used for racing, off-road, task-specific etc. I guess this is the lawyer side of me.

The way I see it, by the 10 year mark "we" should have proven the technology (power, range) and eclectic benefits (performance, reliability, efficiency economically and environmentally, zero emission renewable charging source, no consumption of food/water etc) over alternatives so redundantly that all new cars will be 100% electric. I also believe there will be Tata-Nano priced/type electric cars - thus enabling a larger percentage of all cars on the road for transportation. I also believe the performance could be proven enough for there to be "All Electric" NASCAR, F1, RALLY, NHRA/DRAG, Supermoto/Moto GP/Bike Motorsports, Water Motorsports etc. (I also believe we will replicate combustion-exhaust sounds well enough that even the most die-hard combustion-exhaust fans will not know the difference between the real thing and a good set of speakers simulating it ... which will help keep the excitement alive and well).

However, there is a much smaller chance that all cars on the road for any use will be electric. Laws and poverty will have to be adjusted for that (i.e. banning anything but EVs and subsidizing the purchase of a new entry-level electric car or conversion). Also, if such subsidizing occurs, then it will likely have to be a grant or the qualification issues could be overwhelming. Otherwise, no way you're taking somebody's only transportation off the roads because it isn't all-electric.

Let's see. In the U.S., with roughly 250 Million autos registered at this point which will likely be at least 300 Million by 2020 ( http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/13/news/companies/vanishing_cars/ ), that's an expensive grant. Let's say there's an entry level car or conversion that will cost $5-$10k when it's legal and in your driveway with proper charging infrastructure ready to go. Let's say 25% of drivers need it. 25% of 300 Mil is 75 Million. 75 Million * $10,000 = $750 Billion. If they're $5k cars/conversions it's $375 Billion. Clearly, as evident by spending of late, it would not be unprecedented spending; but there sure would be a lot of resistance without a damning case for the need and a well-enough educated public. (Also, if such grants were really granted I'm guessing they would be for new entry level cars because of potential reliability issues of older chassis conversions. More complication in that decision.)

Charging infrastructure could be another issue, but I think by 10 years we will have good-enough if not excellent solutions for that as well.

(because car manufacturers won't produce new vehicles if the demand for them doesn't exist).
Production trends provide even more variables for speculation. While "we" might logically think the reliability of all-electric vehicles will decrease production, that is not a guarantee (especially considering the people that have more money to spend on and that have a keen interest in all things automotive/motorsport etc). Ceasing entirely is certainly out of the question. We will always want to improve and thus produce those improvements. Population factors too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_industry_in_the_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Automobile_Production_Figures
http://www.marklines.com/en/numproduct/numpro1.jsp

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Well, I don't want to skew your data by taking it again.
No worries... I think it's nice that the survey brings up a discussion.

I think it could use more clarity. Something like "all the cars in the world being produced new, or all the cars in the world in use - new or used" would be helpful. Actually, even that could be better defined by "commuter" or "transportation" or "commercial" cars - seeing as though some vehicles are used for racing, off-road, task-specific etc. I guess this is the lawyer side of me.
I have to admit, it's a bit unfortunate to hear that the question need more clarity as I made a pre-test of the survey exactly because of the clarity, simple wording of the questions and the survey structre. But nobody compalint in the pre-test :-(
Anyway, I should have stated: all "passenger" cars in the world. I somehow assumed it was clear that this question also applies to passenger cars like all the questions before did. I stated "passenger cars" in all the other questions but unfortunately not in this one. I am sorry for the confusion! But it is great to get your feedback, thanks for that, so I can learn from this mistake and I will make it better the next time. (It's the first time I am doing a survey).

Production trends provide even more variables for speculation. While "we" might logically think the reliability of all-electric vehicles will decrease production, that is not a guarantee (especially considering the people that have more money to spend on and that have a keen interest in all things automotive/motorsport etc). Ceasing entirely is certainly out of the question. We will always want to improve and thus produce those improvements. Population factors too.
As for me, I absolutely do not think that EVs will decrease production, quite the contrary, it opens the door for production and the application and integration of new technologies (intersectoral).
 

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Discussion Starter #6 (Edited)
Admirable. Post your thesis when you're done. Good luck.
I've handed in my thesis last week. Unfortunately I was told that I am not allowed to publish anything except the "plain" survey results :-( So I have created a document containing all the questions and the results. If you are interested, I will e-mail the document to you.
 
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